Global oil supply short-term update - May 2019

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2020. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. Further significant downgrades have been made to our outlook for OPEC supply this month. This is due to the decision by the US to end waivers for sanctions against Iran and the increasing level of turmoil in Libya and Venezuela. The forecast for OPEC crude production has been revised down by an average 280,000 b/d in 2019 and 330,000 b/d in 2020. Non-OPEC supply shows relatively little change, being revised up by an average 100,000 b/d in 2019 and down by 10,000 b/d in 2020. This brings overall global supply revisions to a downgrade of 170,000 b/d in 2019 and 340,000 b/d in 2020. Strong non-OPEC supply growth through 2020 at over 2 million b/d per annum is driven by the US, although to a lessening extent. And this non-OPEC growth story sits against a backdrop of slowly deteriorating OPEC supply.