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Country Report 04 May 2020

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2021. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The focus this month was on the emergency OPEC meeting via videoconference, which concluded on 12 April. At the meeting, OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 9.7 million b/d in May and June 2020. Whist we do not expect full compliance, the cuts will have a dramatic effect on supply. Global supply is now forecast to sharply fall and average 97.2 million b/d in 2020, some 3.4 million b/d below the 2019 level. OPEC crude production falls by 2.9 million b/d in 2020, downward revisions from last month of over 2.5 million b/d. The biggest reductions in output are made by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Non-OPEC liquids production is now forecast to fall by 0.4 million b/d in 2020 and hold flat in 2021. The biggest revisions are to the outlooks for the US Lower 48 and Russia.

Global liquids supply: production shut-ins begin to bite into oversupply
- OPEC: radical shift in production outlook as landmark agreement reached
- Non-OPEC supply: between a cut and a hard place
- OPEC+ cuts: Russia and the Caspian lead the way
- US Lower 48: cuts, deferrals and shut-ins