Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - May 2024
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied this month by a slide deck and related excel data download. Since the members of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) last met on 3 April prices have fallen significantly, which raises questions around the outcome of their next meeting on 1 June. Our market balance continues to show tightness over the remainder of this year and our base case outlook remains that the OPEC+ voluntary cuts will be lifted from the end of Q2. However, if prices remain soft through May, OPEC+ could decide to extend the voluntary cuts into Q3. The changes to our overall forecast are relatively minor in this update. An accumulation of small non-OPEC downgrades across North America, Europe and Africa are partly offset by upgrades to Iraq and Russia.
Table of contents
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Global Supply: minor changes to the outlook as market ponders early June OPEC+ outcome
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades across North America, Europe and Africa drive changes this month
- Lower 48 annual oil production growth forecast to slow to 250,000 b/d in 2024
- OPEC: OPEC+ production cuts continue in Q2
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