Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - May 2024
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied this month by a slide deck and related excel data download. Since the members of the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) last met on 3 April prices have fallen significantly, which raises questions around the outcome of their next meeting on 1 June. Our market balance continues to show tightness over the remainder of this year and our base case outlook remains that the OPEC+ voluntary cuts will be lifted from the end of Q2. However, if prices remain soft through May, OPEC+ could decide to extend the voluntary cuts into Q3. The changes to our overall forecast are relatively minor in this update. An accumulation of small non-OPEC downgrades across North America, Europe and Africa are partly offset by upgrades to Iraq and Russia.
Table of contents
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Global Supply: minor changes to the outlook as market ponders early June OPEC+ outcome
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades across North America, Europe and Africa drive changes this month
- Lower 48 annual oil production growth forecast to slow to 250,000 b/d in 2024
- OPEC: OPEC+ production cuts continue in Q2
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What's included
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