Global oil supply short-term update - October 2021

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2023. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. The OPEC+ group met on 4 October as Brent oil prices rose above $80 per barrel. Despite pressure by some to increase supply more, OPEC+ agreed to stick with its current plan – adding 400,000 b/d of supply back into the market in November. Overall global supply has been revised down by around 100,000 b/d in 2021 and 2022. Downgrades to Iraq and Nigeria are offset by near term upgrades to US onshore Lower 48 crude, China and US NGLs. This month we have extended our short-term forecast through 2023. Total global supply grows by 2.3 million b/d in 2023, to average 102.8 million b/d. Non-OPEC liquids supply contributes 1.5 million b/d of the forecast growth, through continued US Lower 48 crude and condensate recovery and easing OPEC+ cuts.