Insight
More running room in Lower 48 efficiencies?
Report summary
Tight oil has established a third chapter of its efficiency story, but it took analyzing a full year of 2023 well data to properly appreciate the performance. This theme will be front and center in Q1 2024 earnings calls. The first growth chapter was one of scale and drilling bigger EUR wells up to 2019. Stagnating well performance marked the second flat chapter, while E&P balanced whipsaw costs from commodity price crashes and OFS strategy pivots. But now the third chapter is one of rejuvenation. Project speed has stolen the spotlight and well costs are the efficiency beneficiary. Wells are drilled faster but competed much faster than in prior chapters. In fact, 2023 was only the second year in tight oil’s history that annual production grew with fewer active rigs than the 12 months before. That relationship will repeat again in 2024.
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