A decade on and the world is still way off track to meet the Paris Agreement goals. No major economy is on track to meet its targets and the clock is ticking.
The war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East have disrupted markets. Oil and gas are still needed to meet around 80% of rising energy demand. The 1.5 °C warming threshold is increasingly out of reach.
A 2 °C pathway is still in sight if annual investment levels increase by 30% to average US$4.3 trillion between now and 2060, across power, grids, upstream, critical minerals and new technologies. Achievable, but only with a global alignment for scaling investment that is currently lacking.
It’s time to turn ambition into action. As the latest edition of our Energy Transition Outlook shows, what happens in the coming decade is critical if we are to meet net zero goals – and keep pace with rising energy demand.
We’ve mapped out four distinct energy transition paths based on cross-sector, multi-commodity modelling
Our assessment of the most likely outcome, corresponding to 2.6˚C warming, under evolution of current policy and technology trends.
Our view of how countries’ existing long term emissions targets are achieved, roughly in line with a 2˚C warming trajectory.
A 1.5 °C by 2100 pathway, dependent on extraordinary levels of policy ambition, capital mobilisation and technological deployment.
A five-year delay in decarbonisation efforts due to geopolitical volatility and policy direction, with to a 3.1 °C pathway.
These scenarios draw on our unparalleled proprietary data to give a fully interconnected cross-sector view, including investment requirements by market and by technology. Analyses of power and renewables, oil and gas, metals and mining, downstream and chemicals. Emerging technologies including low-carbon hydrogen, carbon removal, advanced nuclear and enhanced geothermal.
The result is credible interpretations of four different pathways built on policy targets, technology choices and behavioural changes. Truly connected intelligence.
Need a strategic view of the energy transition? Lens Energy Transition Scenarios delivers trusted research and modelling capabilities to navigate the energy transition in a single platform.
To discuss these questions and more, talk to a consultant with expertise in your sector and region.
