Energy transition outlook: Americas

The Americas enter the next decade balancing energy security, affordability and industrial strategy. Political shifts, resource abundance and rising power demand shape a region where climate ambition competes with economic and geopolitical pressures. These dynamics influence global markets, from LNG trade to clean technology deployment, and determine the pace and direction of the region’s transition. 

Our Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), part of the Energy Transition Service, maps four potential pathways for the global transition. The Americas update covers nine major markets across North and Latin America. Below is an introduction to the themes shaping the region’s outlook. 

North America 

North America moves into the next decade with a renewed emphasis on domestic resources and energy security. Policy changes in the United States reshape the regional landscape and influence global climate alignment. The shift in federal ambition reinforces the role of oil and gas, even as electrification and digitalisation accelerate power demand. 

The United States remains a pivotal player in global LNG markets, with new capacity strengthening its position through the 2030s. Export flows increasingly shape global supply chains, while rising domestic consumption creates new pressures on gas availability. Rapid growth in data centres amplifies these dynamics and pushes utilities toward a broad mix of generation sources to maintain reliability. 

Canada responds with a pragmatic strategy that balances emissions goals with economic resilience. Recent federal‑provincial agreements support continued upstream investment and expand LNG ambitions. At the same time, Canada advances small modular reactors and geothermal development, reinforcing its position in firm low‑carbon power. 

Across the region, next‑generation nuclear and geothermal technologies gain momentum. These emerging sources become increasingly important as electrification, AI‑driven load growth and industrial reshoring reshape power system requirements. 

Latin America 

Latin America’s transition is shaped by population growth, rising electricity demand and abundant renewable resources. Power consumption continues to climb, but transmission infrastructure has not kept pace. Grid bottlenecks limit the integration of large‑scale wind and solar, slowing renewable deployment despite strong resource potential. 

Several markets rely more heavily on gas to meet near‑term demand, increasing exposure to global price volatility. Yet the region remains a global leader in low‑carbon power, anchored by hydropower and supported by growing solar and wind capacity where grid conditions allow. Interest in green hydrogen and ammonia is rising as countries explore new export opportunities. 

Latin America’s long‑term trajectory will depend on its ability to modernise grid infrastructure, attract stable investment and streamline permitting. 

Get a closer look at Americas energy transition scenarios 

The full Americas Energy Transition Outlook provides detailed forecasts, scenario comparisons and country‑level insights not included here.  

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