How US shale and deepwater are reshaping Major upstream competitiveness

The United States is unarguably the world's most attractive upstream market, adding 2 million boed between 2020 and 2025. Stable regulation, unmatched shale resources and competitive Gulf of America deepwater returns are continuing to attract capital.

As global upstream opportunities narrow, US positioning has become increasingly important. Indeed, all global Majors are planning to maintain or expand their US exposure.

US size matters

The US delivers more than 50% of upstream value for BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron, but only the latter two have the scale to match, dominating the resource base and capex, with competitive sub-US$35/bbl breakevens.

ExxonMobil dominates in terms of inventory, with 99% onshore resources and a 30-year reserve life, followed by Chevron (93% onshore, 20 years) and BP (80% onshore, 22 years). Shell, TotalEnergies and Equinor hold a fraction of the top-three inventory.

BP’s 54% US value share reflects its growing reliance on the US as lower-margin global regions weigh on performance. Its reserve life will compress under its growth plans. Shell, meanwhile, faces a production decline without an onshore US buffer.

ExxonMobil, Chevron, Equinor, BP and others are all set to increase their US exposure over the next decade, be it through Permian growth, Gulf of America deepwater, or geographical concentration driven by a decline in international portfolios.

BP announced in February 2025 that it was channelling 75% of capex to upstream oil and gas, with bpx, its US onshore oil and gas business, targeting 650 kboed by 2030. It is eyeing 10 new projects by 2027, with US Paleogene in the Gulf of America to deliver one-third of its deepwater production by the 2030s.

TotalEnergies, meanwhile, has made three US gas acquisitions since 2024, feeding its position as the largest US LNG exporter. Equinor is targeting 50% of its international profits from the US, the highest-value production in its portfolio.

Fill out the form at the top of the page to read the rest of this article, which delves into their plans, how strategies are diverging, where potential success and failure may lie, and what this means for E&Ps .