Mozambique's LNG reset: from force majeure to major force

Mozambique is re-emerging as one of the world's most compelling LNG growth stories. Five years after regional insecurity in Cabo Delgado forced TotalEnergies to halt construction of its flagship onshore project, the country's LNG sector is growing again. Coral Sul is producing at capacity, Coral Norte has been sanctioned, construction has restarted at Mozambique LNG, and Rovuma LNG is closing in on a final investment decision (FID). Wood Mackenzie estimates that, if Rovuma LNG reaches FID by early 2027, Mozambique's four current projects could deliver 38 million tonnes per annum (mmtpa) of capacity by 2032 – enough to overtake Nigeria as Africa's largest LNG exporter.

From force majeure to four projects under way

Mozambique's exploration boom in the early 2010s uncovered 125 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of resources across Areas 1 and 4, enough to support separate LNG projects in each block. Progress since then has been uneven. Coral Sul, the world's fifth floating LNG (FLNG) project, has operated at its 3.4 mmtpa capacity since reaching plateau in 2023. This performance gave the Area 4 partners the confidence to sanction Coral Norte, an enhanced replica targeting first LNG in 2028.

Onshore progress has been more challenging. TotalEnergies sanctioned the 13.1 mmtpa Mozambique LNG project in 2019, but security concerns in 2021 led to four and a half years of force majeure. Construction restarted in January 2026 after conditions in the province stabilised. TotalEnergies is now targeting start-up in 2029, with the project around 45% complete. ExxonMobil's Rovuma LNG was redesigned during the delay, replacing two large trains with 12 mini-trains to increase capacity to 18.6 mmtpa. The project is targeting FID in late 2026 and is expected to cost around US$27 billion, which would make it Africa's largest-ever energy development.

A decade of investment, then a second wave

Wood Mackenzie estimates that around US$45 billion could be invested between 2026 and 2033 to complete Coral Norte and the two onshore projects. That is likely to be only the first instalment. Around 75 tcf of gas remains uncommercialised across Areas 1 and 4, enough to support Mozambique LNG Phase 2, a third Area 4 FLNG vessel and potentially a further joint development of resources straddling the two blocks. Together, these projects could add 30 to 35 mmtpa of capacity and push national output above 70 mmtpa by 2040. This would be enough for Mozambique to overtake Canada and become the world's fourth-largest LNG producer, while lifting cumulative investment beyond US$90 billion between 2026 and 2040.

Why the majors and Asian buyers are watching closely

East Africa's location outside the Persian Gulf, combined with its proximity to South Asian markets, has made Mozambique increasingly attractive as recent geopolitical disruption reshapes buyers' risk calculations. Both Area 1 and Area 4 include Asian national oil companies among their non-operating partners, including CNPC, PTTEP and three Indian national oil companies, alongside ADNOC's XRG. The stakes are equally high for the operators. Wood Mackenzie estimates that Mozambique could account for 16% of Eni's upstream value by 2030. It could also become TotalEnergies' highest-value African country and CNPC's most valuable position worldwide if all four sanctioned projects and the follow-on phases proceed as planned.

The execution risk is real

None of this is guaranteed. Conditions in Cabo Delgado have improved but remain uncertain. Government approvals for Mozambique LNG's revised budget and Rovuma LNG's amended development plan are still outstanding, while Mozambique's newly amended Petroleum Law creates further uncertainty over domestic gas obligations and pricing. Financing may be the biggest test of all. Wood Mackenzie estimates that total capital expenditure could exceed US$75 billion if Rovuma LNG and the three follow-on projects proceed, with around US$50 billion required from external lenders. This funding will be needed as over 100 mmtpa of new global LNG capacity is set to reach the market by 2030. Every year of delay narrows the window before that wave of new supply arrives.

Continue the conversation at African Energy Week

Wood Mackenzie will discuss Mozambique's LNG reset and the wider outlook for Africa's oil, gas and power markets at African Energy Week in Cape Town from 12 to 16 October 2026. Our upstream and gas experts will be on the ground throughout the week to share their latest analysis of Mozambique LNG, Rovuma LNG's looming FID and the next wave of investment reshaping the continent's energy sector.

Wood Mackenzie customers can contact their account team to arrange a meeting with us at Africa Energy Week.