The new politics of power

US residential electricity prices have risen by more than 40 per cent since the start of 2021, which is much faster than general inflation. Utilities requested a total of $31 billion in increased rates last year, double the amount in 2024. And investor-owned utilities are planning to spend $1.4 trillion on capital projects over the next five years – enough on one calculation, to build almost 2,000 Hoover Dams at today’s prices. So why are American electricity bills going up, and what can be done to provide some relief for hard-pressed consumers?

In this episode, host Ed Crooks and regular contributor Dr Melissa Lott are joined by Charles Hua, founder and executive director of Powerlines, a nonprofit launched in 2024. Charles's focus is on US states’ Public Utilities Commissions: the roughly 200 commissioners across the country who oversee around $200 billion in annual spending and ultimately determine what consumers pay. He calls them the “US Supreme Court justices of energy”.

The discussion opens with questions of consumers’ perceptions, and how they align with reality. The data show that in the past few years, electricity bills have been rising, on average, explaining why the issue has been rising up the political agenda.

Recent Ipsos polling commissioned by Powerlines found that four in five Americans feel powerless about energy costs. The proportion who believe their state officials are serving their interests as consumers fell from 38 per cent to 29 per cent in a single year. Charles calls this "a new politics of electricity." It is a domain that until recently sat outside mainstream political attention, but now reaches governors' offices and the White House.

Charles and Melissa then unpack what is actually driving the increases. Melissa walks through the top five cost drivers identified in the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's analysis: fuel and wholesale supply, distribution costs, generation capex, transmission costs, and cost recovery from extreme weather events. Charles points beyond the line items to a fundamental issue: the traditional utility business model, which structurally rewards capital spending.

The question about the impact of data centers is unavoidable. Charles breaks it down: until now, data centres have not been a meaningful driver of price increases across most of the country. But that does not mean they will not be in future. PJM's capacity auction, where prices have rocketed, is one early signal that the picture is starting to change.

Charles offers three solutions. First, get more out of the existing grid, which is currently running at roughly 50 per cent utilisation, through technologies he describes as "ibuprofen for the grid." Second, modernise the utility business model, potentially drawing on the UK's totex approach, where utilities can earn a return on operational as well as capital spending. Third, improve grid planning, particularly how load is forecast and how integrated resource plans are built.

Melissa zooms out to remind listeners what is actually at stake. Borrowing a line from Amory Lovins, she says: "I don't care about my electrons. I care about cold beer and hot showers." The question is not just about price, but about whether households can keep their homes safe and liveable year-round.