With European thermal coal prices hovering at US$60/t, market participants are asking: when does the US come back into the export market? Since January, the delivered cost curve has moved upwards by US$4-5/t, and available capacity has contracted. This allows for the main US suppliers to be more-or-less "in the money", in theory. There should be an opportunity for an additional 3-5 Mt if prices are sustained at current levels. But the picture is muddied by available capacity, US domestic demand, shipments from global competitors, and size of the market in the Atlantic.