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Europe at US$60/t: when do US thermal coals become competitive?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
With European thermal coal prices hovering at US$60/t, market participants are asking: when does the US come back into the export market? Since January, the delivered cost curve has moved upwards by US$4-5/t, and available capacity has contracted. This allows for the main US suppliers to be more-or-less "in the money", in theory. There should be an opportunity for an additional 3-5 Mt if prices are sustained at current levels. But the picture is muddied by available capacity, US domestic demand, shipments from global competitors, and size of the market in the Atlantic.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- The delivered cost curve moves upwards
- Supply capacity tightness: what does a realistic curve look like?
- US exports and ability to ship
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- European delivered cost curve evolution: January to August 2016
- South African thermal exports: destinations and volumes (Mt)
- Delivered cost curve: with capacity restrictions
- US stockpiles – near record levels, and likely to be burned down quickly
What's included
This report contains:
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