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Commodity Market Report

North America thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

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22 June 2015

North America thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

2014 draws to a close with a discouraging outlook for the coal markets – for both producers and consumers. Producers face several more years of low prices and weak demand. Consumers must contend with continuing deliverability issues, over-contracted positions as natural gas producers lower prices to move volume into the power markets and even the future viability of some coal suppliers. 

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Economic outlook
    • Base case Environmental policy assumptions
    • Scrubber status of EGUs (GW)
    • CO2 price comparison (US$/metric tonne)
  • Demand
    • PRB
    • ILB
    • NAPP
    • Colorado/Utah
    • CAPP
    • Other
    • Domestic
    • Exports
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Market coal price forecast factors (Real 2015 US$)
  • Economic outlook: Image 1
  • Regional GDP growth - 13-Year CAGR (2012-2025))
  • Electricity Demand Outlook
  • Generation Mix Outlook
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Mine cash cost reduction
  • 2015 US thermal coal production cuts/delays announced in 2015 YTD
  • Assumed probability, timing and impact of risks*
  • Policy and regulation: Table 1
  • Policy and regulation: Image 1
  • Policy and regulation: Image 2
  • US thermal coal supply outlook (Mst)
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • US coal exporting capacity by port

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    CMS Census Region Analysis June.xls

    XLS 1.67 MB

  • Document

    CMS Basin Level Analysis June.xls

    XLS 1.29 MB

  • Document

    North America Coal Markets Highlights H1 2015.pdf

    PDF 1.11 MB

  • Document

    CMS Demand Analysis June.xls

    XLS 487.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Environment and Emissions Data June.xls

    XLS 9.18 MB

  • Document

    CMS Executive Summary June.xls

    XLS 13.79 MB

  • Document

    CMS Prices Coal Gas and Emissions June.xls

    XLS 714.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Total Coal Production June.xls

    XLS 465.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Unit Coal Choices June.xls

    XLS 3.76 MB

  • Document

    CMS Unit Coal Economics June.xls

    XLS 16.02 MB

  • Document

    LTO Graph Tool.zip

    ZIP 9.05 MB

  • Document

    North America thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 1.49 MB

  • Document

    North America thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 33.33 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 124.09 KB

  • Document


    PDF 86.94 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 87.62 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 115.88 KB

  • Document


    PDF 145.38 KB

  • Document


    PDF 151.41 KB

  • Document


    PDF 387.46 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 839.99 KB