Commodity Market Report

Japan LNG long-term outlook 2019

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25 July 2019

Japan LNG long-term outlook 2019

Report summary

Japan LNG long-term market report, including details of the LNG supply-demand balance, regas infrastructure, contract developments, market structure and policy. Key highlights this update include: - Japan's LNG demand will decline but imports will remain above 60 mmtpa through 2040 - LNG to power demand is under pressure from coal, renewables and nuclear - As new contract volumes ramp-up and demand falls, Japan risks being overcontracted in the early 2020’s - Japan has been at the forefront of Asian contracting innovation with the removal of destination clauses from FOB contracts, more diverse contract formulae and indexation, shorter duration deals, joint procurement, and even procuring one of the world’s first carbon-neutral LNG cargoes in 2019 - As long-term contracts roll off from the mid-2020s, Japanese buyers will look to ensure supply security with new long-term volumes, while also incorporating some innovative contracting mechanisms

Table of contents

  • Contracting trends
  • Contract outlook
    • 2019
    • Coal-to-gas switching
    • 2020
    • Power demand
    • Nuclear outlook
    • Non-power demand
    • Residential/Commercial
    • Industry
    • Progress towards a liberalised gas market continues
    • Energy security remains at the heart of Japanese energy policy in the post-Fukushima era

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Oil-indexation trend
  • Contracted LNG supply by source
  • Contracts vs LNG imports
  • Contracted LNG supply position by buyer
  • Japan regional map - areas of high population and energy demand
  • Gas demand and imports (2015-2040)
  • Japan LNG demand (monthly)
  • Stock levels
  • Short-run coal-to-gas switching curve
  • Power generation mix
  • Nuclear restarts
  • Japan electricity and gas liberalisation timeline
  • Japan's 5th Strategic Energy Plan - 2030 Targets

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Japan LNG long-term outlook 2019

    PDF 1.39 MB

  • Document

    01_data_japan_2019.xls

    XLS 378.50 KB

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