Global economic outlook Q1 2023: turning point approaching

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The outlook for the global economy is improving. We don’t anticipate a synchronised global recession this year. But we do expect the economic slowdown to continue for several months before reaching a turning point in the second half of 2023. Opposing forces are at play in the global economy. China is accelerating while the US is slowing and Europe is entering a recession. We forecast global gross domestic product growth to slow to 2.2% in 2023 from 3% last year, before rebounding by 3.2% next year.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • (Re)enter the dragon
    • India alluring
    • Europe on the brink
    • US: jobs, jobs and more jobs
    • Long-term economic outlook
    • Passing the baton
    • Risks are relatively balanced

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Global GDP growth
  • China savings
  • China's highway mobility rebounds in early 2023
  • India public investment
  • Europe inflation has peaked
  • German industry is resilient
  • US inflationary periods compared
  • US employment gains
  • Global GDP level
  • Global GDP growth
  • India surpasses China as most populous nation
  • Population growth rates

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global economic outlook Q1 2023: turning point approaching

    PDF 909.72 KB