The global economy entered 2018 on a high, but momentum has since waned. We expect the wobbles in early 2018 to be short lived. A full-blown trade conflict between China and the US is a risk but still an outside one; both sides have too much to lose and relatively little to gain. The US economy is growing at a healthy pace, and we don't expect inflation to rise much above the Fed's 2% target. Interest rates will rise, but at a pace the markets should be able to handle. And as the US dollar resumes its slide, emerging markets will breather a little easier. Our global economic outlook is positive for the next couple of years, but risks are weighted to the downside.