While resource producing states are suffering, non-resource states are enjoying robust growth – supported by low gasoline prices and improved household purchasing power. This is helping to offset poor growth in resource states. within the US varies from one state to another. States with extensive oil and gas activity are suffering from layoffs in the sector and a slump in capital spending. Could low oil prices drag these states into recession? Economic growth Over the longer term, state economic growth will be heavily influenced by demographics. We expect US GDP growth of around 2% per annum, but with significant regional variation. The South and West will outpace the rest of country owing to migration flows from the Northeast and Midwest. Texas and Florida in particular should benefit from inward migration.