Metals and mining: 5 things to look for in 2022

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2021 presented a unique challenge to metals and mining players; how to make sense of the disorientating price volatility, and dizzying array of signals in a market that is artificially stimulated and still tormented by the pandemic threat. 2022 perhaps offers a chance to reset and gather thoughts, but the year has begun largely as 2021 ended. We think 2022 should provide some respite from the frenetic pace of last year, but things won't change overnight. Below we discuss 5 common themes to watch across metals and mining markets, and provide links to separate reports for each of the major commodities and commodity groups that make up the sector.

Table of contents

  • Economy: A year of narrowing extremes, but widening uncertainty
  • Supply: Investment muted despite supply constraints and earnings boom
  • Decarbonisation: increased scrutiny to drive surge in low cost abatement
  • Costs: Inflation to hasten margin decline
    • Steel: Chinese demand, urban mining, and supply chain constraints
    • Iron ore: Diversifying supply and pressure on high quality products
    • Metallurgical Coal: Chinese import needs and supply investment
    • Thermal coal: China policy, the energy transition and supply investment
    • Noble and bulk steel alloys : Chinese emissions control and new energy applications
    • Aluminium: Demand may surprise on the upside and power-related curtailments on the downside
    • Copper: Supply disruptions and stronger demand growth leading to stronger market fundamentals
    • Lead: Low stocks and the potential for supply disruption could leave the market undersupplied
    • Nickel: Tighter nickel market driven by continued strength in stainless and EVs
    • Zinc: New concentrate supply to ease burden of high power prices on smelter economics
    • Gold: Prices support strong exploration, mine life extensions and project development
    • Battery Raw Materials: continued strong growth in EV sales and the rise of LFP battery adoption
    • Cathode and precursor markets: shortage of battery materials and rising vertical integration
    • Rare Earths: Demand surge conflicts with shortages and rising ESG risk of feedstock supply
    • Sustainable smelting: Chinese emission policy a risk as smelters look to fast-track green technologies

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    Metals And Mining 5 Things To Look For In 2022.pdf

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