Global aluminium investment horizon outlook Q4 2022

The aluminium investment horizon outlook is published in September and December and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium market fundamentals out to 2032 with supporting tables out to 2050. A growing dichotomy is emerging between China and the rest of the world. Recession fears in the developed world are still rumbling away for 2023 with a weak outlook for construction activity amid poor consumer sentiment. China’s exit from Covid restrictions will be messy. But stimulus measures, particularly for the key property sector will push demand growth higher over the next 2-4 years. Beyond 2030 rising secondary aluminium consumption will limit the need for any significant requirement for new primary aluminium smelting capacity. Despite growing economic headwinds, the aluminium price has remained at historically healthy levels, backed by high energy cost and the likelihood of further supply cuts in 2023. The real US$2022 price will find support as stocks over the medium-term edge lower.