Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 25 February 2020

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The uplift in market sentiment last month on the back of a de-escalation in the US-China trade war rapidly evaporated in February over concerns about the impact of the Covid-19 virus on global economic activity. The moves to limit the spread of the disease have had a dramatic and widespread impact on all parts of China’s economy, particularly logistics. This is also impacting the supply chain in the rest of the world. The international spread of the disease severely dented investor sentiment towards risky assets and we expect near-term LME prices to test the US$1600/t level.

China
Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

Primary demand growth close to flat in H1 2020 with risk of further downgrade
Downstream operations struggling to resume output as workers left stranded
Coal consumption at major coastal power plants

All bets off on how bad the near-term PMI data will be
North American shipments of flat-rolled products
US shipments of extrusions
Summary of January production, kt
Changes in aluminium production estimates since January, (kt)
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2019-2022, (kt)
China refinery cuts during the Coronavirus
Changes in global SGA production estimates since January, (kt)
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Japanese production of rolled and extruded products
EU 28 imports of semis from China