Global copper strategic planning outlook - Q2 2023

Over the next couple of years, prices will come under pressure as supply growth outstrips that of demand as output from new projects hits the market. Nevertheless, our view of a copper market in a long-term structural deficit remains intact. Beyond 2026, an anticipated shortfall emerges as base case mine supply begins to contract while demand growth, shaped by a combination of population growth, urbanisation, electrification and decarbonisation, remains robust. As prices trade higher in reaction to anticipated deficits, this should provide sufficient confidence to motivate producers to bring on the additional supply that is needed to maintain a reasonable long-term market balance and to meet the demand growth opportunities that lie ahead. Crucially, infinitely recyclable copper scrap will also need to play a more significant role over the long-term as the world increasingly focuses on circularity and the use of recycled metals.