Energy Research & Consultancy

Commodity Market Report 31 March 2023

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Report summary

With the pandemic no longer prompting heavy-handed measures following China’s lifting of Xi's zero-Covid policy, the external factors driving lead markets remain associated with the repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, i.e. elevated energy prices, the resulting inflationary pressures and the response from policymakers. Amid the evolution of these repercussions are economic stimuli to accelerate the energy transition and critical mineral “protectionism” that are distorting established trade patterns. The speed of the energy transition will influence global lead markets in the medium to long term. We forecast demand to 2028 increasing by 1.6% p.a., which is slower than the pace of 2.8% in the previous five years. Surplus refined metal is forecast to emerge with stocks at the end of 2026 reaching long-term average levels. Relatively low levels will support prices at an average $2150/t ($2081/t real) in 2023-2026 and fall to a low of $2000/t ($1838/t real) in 2027.

Medium-term forecasts
Long-term prices
Overview
Medium term Outlook
Asia
China
India
Europe
North America
USA
Mexico
Latin America
Rest of World
Changes to forecast Lead consumption since previous quarter
- Lead:zinc ratio falling from new mines
- Mine projects
- Strategic planning outlook - Long term supply considerations
- Geopolitical landscape
- Environmental challenges
- Mining and mineral processing technology
Regional smelter and refinery production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

Table: Price forecasts and refined market balances
Chart: Concentrate and metal supply-demand balance and price forecast
Chart: Concentrate and refined lead stocks

Chart: Total stocks and long-term prices
Chart: Regional refined lead consumption growth
Chart: China, India plus rest of Asia are the main growth drivers for refined lead
Chart: China’s proportion of total demand stabilises as its lead market matures
Table: Regional refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
Table: European refined lead consumption
Chart: Regional consumption changes since last qtr
Table: Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
Chart: Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025 and fall decisively from 2028
Table: Global refined lead production capability
Table: Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
Chart: New mined lead production required from 2028
Table: African refined lead production
Table: Asian refined lead production
Table: European refined lead production
Table: Latin American refined lead production
Table: Middle East refined lead production
Table: North American refined lead production
Table: Oceania refined lead production
Table: Russia and the Caspian refined lead production