Commodity Market Report

Global lead strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

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With the pandemic no longer prompting heavy-handed measures following China’s lifting of Xi's zero-Covid policy, the external factors driving lead markets remain associated with the repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, i.e. elevated energy prices, the resulting inflationary pressures and the response from policymakers. Amid the evolution of these repercussions are economic stimuli to accelerate the energy transition and critical mineral “protectionism” that are distorting established trade patterns. The speed of the energy transition will influence global lead markets in the medium to long term. We forecast demand to 2028 increasing by 1.6% p.a., which is slower than the pace of 2.8% in the previous five years. Surplus refined metal is forecast to emerge with stocks at the end of 2026 reaching long-term average levels. Relatively low levels will support prices at an average $2150/t ($2081/t real) in 2023-2026 and fall to a low of $2000/t ($1838/t real) in 2027.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • Table: Price forecasts and refined market balances
  • Chart: Concentrate and metal supply-demand balance and price forecast
  • Chart: Concentrate and refined lead stocks
  • Chart: Total stocks and long-term prices
  • Chart: Regional refined lead consumption growth
  • Chart: China, India plus rest of Asia are the main growth drivers for refined lead
  • Chart: China’s proportion of total demand stabilises as its lead market matures
  • Table: Regional refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
  • Table: European refined lead consumption
  • Chart: Regional consumption changes since last qtr
  • Table: Global lead mine production capability and market adjustments
  • Chart: Current mine production capability is expected to peak in 2025 and fall decisively from 2028
  • Table: Global refined lead production capability
  • Table: Analysis of the lead:zinc mine production ratio
  • Chart: New mined lead production required from 2028
  • Table: African refined lead production
  • Table: Asian refined lead production
  • Table: European refined lead production
  • Table: Latin American refined lead production
  • Table: Middle East refined lead production
  • Table: North American refined lead production
  • Table: Oceania refined lead production
  • Table: Russia and the Caspian refined lead production

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global lead strategic planning outlook - Q1 2023

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