Global rare earths short-term outlook August 2023

Prices for key magnet rare earths regained a level of stability in August as improved restocking activity from large-scale industry players limited spot availability. Prices for neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium increased between 4.3% and 7.2% month-on-month in August, but terbium fell by 0.3%. Dysprosium prices now reflect a 9.9% decrease since the beginning of the year, while neodymium, praseodymium and terbium prices remain between 34.9% and 50.1% down. The ROW pipeline of developing projects continues to expand as governments around the world look to improve supply chain security. Global refined supply is set to rise at a CAGR of 7.5% to 2027, reaching 292.8 kt REO. China currently accounts for 86% of global refined production, but ROW production has been boosted by new supply from MP Materials in the US. We expect the neodymium market to remain in a small surplus in 2023, before tightening in 2024 and falling into deficit in 2025.