Insight
Iron ore price spread between low and high grades to remain wide
Report summary
Since China started to rationalise its steel capacity in 2016, the price spread between low-grade and high-grade iron ore has widened substantially. In addition, low-grade ore discounts have become more sensitive to steel margins than to coke or coking coal prices. We have established a model to quantitatively explain why these trends are happening and how they will progress in the future. Based on the model results, we expect the long-term discount for low-grade Fortescue Metals Group Super Special Fines to be 24% and the premium for high-grade Vale Carajas fines to settle at 20%. Our forecast price spreads are narrower than today's spot spreads of more than 30%, but wider than the 10% to 15% price spreads that prevailed before China's steel supply-side reforms began in 2016.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Discounts and premiums for various iron ore grades
- Productivity isthe key driver of iron ore price spreads when steel margins are high
- Steelmaking costsbecome less of a factor determining iron ore price spreadsas steel margins rise
- Price spreads to narrow but remain wider than before China's steel industry rationalisation
- What about supply?
Tables and charts
This report includes 12 images and tables including:
- Discount of FMG SSF to PB fines (%)
- Premium of Vale Carajas fines To PB fines (%)
- Sensitivity of discount for FMG SSF to coke price and rebar price (%)
- Sensitivity of premium for Vale Carajas fines to coke price and rebar price (%)
- Ironmaking average productivity (tonne hot metal/employee-year) from various iron ore
- Rebar average productivity (tonne rebar/employee- year) from different iron ore
- The conversion cost (RMB/t hot metal) for low-grade ore is higher (April 2018)
- Low-grade ore requires more flux and more coke breeze in the sintering process (kg/t sinter)
- Low-grade ore consumes more sinter and coke in the ironmaking process (kg/t hot metal)
- FMG SSF discount may be sustained for the next two years and then fall
- Vale Carajas fines premium may be sustained for the next two years and then fall
- The changing composition of ex-mine seaborne supply
What's included
This report contains:
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