Commodity Market Report
Rare earth markets 2021 outlook to 2050
Report summary
Prices for key rare earth products increased to ten-year highs in 2021, with the largest increases limited to critical elements for permanent magnet technologies. Demand growth from automotive and renewable energy generation applications has placed significant pressure on the supply chain for neodymium-praseodymium and dysprosium products. China has increasingly transitioned to imported or recycled feedstock, which was disrupted in mid-2021 with closure of the Myanmar border. Inventory drawdown and increasing cost of reagents and energy in China have both placed upward pressure on prices in H2 2021.
Table of contents
-
Welcome
- Prices
- Price trends linked to involvement in permanent magnet industry
- Key magnet element prices to remain elevated, though limited by substitution
- Heavy rare earth prices to fall back from mid-2020 highs
- Lanthanum and cerium prices to remain at cost of production
- Market balance
- Neodymium supply defines rare earth market
- Rare earths elements to remain in significant oversupply
- Diverging trend between magnet and non-magnet materials
- Demand
- Demand growth will be increasingly led by the permanent magnet industry
- The decline in demand for catalyst applications impacts lanthanum and cerium
- Industrial applications display steady growth with improved supply availability
- Supply
- Mine supply to become increasingly diversified
- Monazite: future growth opportunity
- Refined supply set to remain China-centred
- Secondary supply will grow in importance
- Lanthanum and cerium oxides
- Risks to the base case
- Neodymium, praseodymium, and Nd-Pr oxides
- Risks to the base case
- Samarium, europium and gadolinium oxide
- Risks to the base case
- Dysprosium and terbium
- Risks to the base case
- Neodymium
- Praseodymium
- Dysprosium
- Terbium
- Samarium, europium, gadolinium (SEG)
- Other heavy rare earths
- Magnet applications
- Catalyst applications
- Polishing powders
- Glass
- Metallurgical
- Batteries
- Minor applications
- Other applications
- Mine supply
- Mine production capability
- Monazite: future growth opportunity
- Regional supply trends
- China
- North America
- Asia Pacific (ex China)
- Europe
- Africa and Middle East
- Latin America
- Refined supply
- Refined production capability
- Regional supply trends
- China
- North America
- Asia Pacific (ex China)
- Europe
- Africa and Middle East
- Latin America
- Recycled supply
- Recycling production capability
- Regional supply trends
- China
- North America
- Asia Pacific (ex China)
- Europe
- Africa and Middle East
- Latin America
Tables and charts
This report includes 46 images and tables including:
- Refined outlook comparison (2020-2035)
- Demand outlook comparison (2020-2035)
- Nd-Pr, Dy and Tb oxide price outlook
- La and Ce oxide price outlook
- Demand distribution by element
- Demand distribution by end-use market
- Rare earth oxide price indexed (2020 = 1.00, real US$2021)
- Rare earth price forecast (real US$2021 per kg REO)
- China lanthanum and cerium oxide price outlook (real US$2021 per kg REO)
- China neodymium, praseodymium and Nd-Pr oxide price outlook (real US$2021 per kg REO)
- China samarium, europium and gadolinium oxide price outlook (real US$2021 per kg REO)
- China dysprosium and terbium oxide price outlook (real US$2021 per kg REO)
- China lutetium and holmium oxide price outlook (real US$2021 per kg REO)
- China ytterbium and yttrium oxide price outlook (real US$2021 per kg REO)
- Global supply, demand and market balance (kt REO)
- Supply-demand balance for neodymium oxide
- Supply-demand balance for praseodymium oxide
- Dysprosium supply from refined and recycled sources
- Dysprosium oxide supply-demand balance
- Terbium oxide supply-demand balance
- Rare earth demand by element (kt REO)
- Rare earth demand by region
- Rare earth permanent magnet demand
- NdFeB magnet demand by end-use
- NdFeB magnet demand in automotive and transport applications
- Motor technology in battery electric vehicles
- Drivetrain NdFeB intensity of use (all vehicles)
- NdFeB demand in computing, electronics and audio applications
- Wind energy generation and generator type
- Demand by major element
- Demand by minor element
- Regional demand in magnet applications
- Demand in catalyst applications
- Crude oil production and FCC catalyst demand
- CO2 emissions standards 2077-2030 (g/km)
- Regional demand in auto-catalysts
- Polishing powder demand
- Demand by glass applications
- Battery cathode demand by type
- Rare earth demand in batteries
- Rare earth demand from minor applications (t REO)
- Global mine supply and proportional Chinese derived supply
- Outlook for rare earth mine production from monazite bearing heavy mineral sands
- Outlook for global refined supply 2021-2050
- Rare earth refined supply by element (kt REO)
- Outlook for rare earth supply from recycled sources
What's included
This report contains:
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