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Commodity Market Report

NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power, and renewables base case

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06 June 2022

NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power, and renewables base case

Report summary

This “NYMEX” case represents the use of the New York Mercantile Exchange futures gas prices and the impact on Mexico’s power sector long-term outlook. Wood Mackenzie’s gas prices forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case (Mexico gas, power and renewables strategic planning outlook) – shows Henry Hub prices back to near US$3/MMBtu by 2024. Elevated oil and gas prices will incentivize more supply to come back to the market and pressure Henry Hub prices to the downside in the near term. However, the surge of the next wave of North America LNG exports will result in a ramp up in Henry Hub prices in the late 2020s, pushing it to US$3.2/MMBtu. In contrast, NYMEX’s future gas prices consider a slower recovery, holding Henry Hub closer to US$4/MMBtu through the mid-2020s.

Table of contents

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Mexico GPR Strategic Planning Outlook NYMEX Sensitivity Case Avg Day Month 6 6 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 4.28 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR Strategic Planning Outlook NYMEX Sensitivity Case Clean Energy Compliance Mexico 6 6 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 69.78 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR Strategic Planning Outlook NYMEX Sensitivity Case Delivered Fuel Prices Nominal Mexico 6 6 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 245.44 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR Strategic Planning Outlook NYMEX Sensitivity Case Delivered Fuel Prices Real Mexico 6 6 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 248.47 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR Strategic Planning Outlook NYMEX Sensitivity Case Load Forecast Mexico 6 6 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 98.41 KB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR Strategic Planning Outlook NYMEX Sensitivity Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Nominal Mexico 6 6 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 3.50 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR Strategic Planning Outlook NYMEX Sensitivity Case Prices Sparks IHR Darks Real Mexico 6 6 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 5.11 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR Strategic Planning Outlook NYMEX Sensitivity Case Supply Demand Energy Mexico 6 6 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 545.82 KB

  • Document

    NYMEX sensitivity case developed from the Mexico gas, power, and renewables base case

    PDF 1.26 MB

  • Document

    Mexico GPR Strategic Planning Outlook NYMEX Sensitivity Case Capacity Prices Mexico 6 6 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 87.48 KB

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