NYMEX sensitivity case, developed from the Mexico gas, power and renewables long-term outlook H1 2020

Wood Mackenzie's gas prices forecast – used as a primary input in our Base Case – featured a material price premium for Henry Hub in this decade over its previous outlook and compared to the current futures market, primarily driven by structural changes to the supply mix. While we estimate Henry Hub to rise close to $4/mmbtu by the end of the forecast period, NYMEX's future gas prices consider a flatter and steadier trend, reaching $2.5/mmbtu by 2032 and staying below the mark of $3/mmbtu by 2040. This sensitivity case provides the results of our Mexico's power sector long-term outlook using NYMEX's forecasted gas prices as a principal input. The more considerable variations are observed on Local Marginal Prices due to the country's energy mix dependence on gas-based generation.