Commodity Market Report

Estonia downstream oil long-term outlook

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With no domestic oil refining capacity, Estonia relies entirely on oil product imports from Finland and Lithuania to satisfy domestic demand. The country has a large marine bunker fuel market and has historically been an established transit route for Russian oil product exports. However, this has been on the decline as political tensions between the two countries rise, and Russia bolsters its northwestern port infrastructure. The Estonian government has made much progress in recent years to monitor and address its historic illicit 'grey' fuel market and introduced mandatory biofuel blending in transport fuels in 2018. Following LUKOIL's exit, the Estonian fuels market is now more concentrated than ever, with the top four players collectively accounting for over 90% of the retail market volume sales.

Table of contents

  • Market drivers
  • Outlook
    • Overall position - net importer
    • Volumes
    • Overall network development
    • Circle K (previously Statoil)
    • Neste
    • Independents
    • Network efficiency
    • Performance pacesetters in the retail market
    • Fuel oil
  • Fuels marketing margins
  • Oil product storage infrastructure

Tables and charts

This report includes 19 images and tables including:

  • Key demand indicators
  • Overall demand
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Demand forecast (kt)
  • Trade balance
  • Commercial fuel volumes
  • Main products: monthly unit gross margins
  • Main products: annual average unit gross margins
  • Storage and distribution infrastructure
  • Key trade partners
  • Gasoline - net importer
  • Diesel/gasoil - net importer
  • Jet/kero - net importer
  • Fuel oil - net importer
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Retail outlets by brand
  • Market shares
  • Number of sites and average throughputs
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Estonia downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 1.36 MB