Global refinery closure threat update – 1 in 20 at high risk

The impact of Covid-19 pandemic on oil demand and refining margins resulted in a tidal wave of industry rationalisation. While we expect refining margins to recover from the lows of 2020, refining margins post-2027 are projected to soften as the energy transition results in declining demand. There are a number of refineries that are projected to still be cash negative in 2027, so at threat of rationalisation. In this refinery closure analysis update, we have enhanced the methodology to reflect the truly global nature of the refining industry. Major enhancements include the assessment of a list of global refineries, the petrochemical contribution from our new REM-Chemicals offering and the change in net cash margin post-investment.