Lithuania downstream oil long-term outlook Report

Commodity Market Report 12 November 2020

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Report summary

Oil demand in Lithuania is expected to dip in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Although we expect to see some recovery in 2021, we don't expect total oil demand to return to 2019 levels and instead we expect demand to enter a steady trajectory of decline from 2022. Poland's PKN ORLEN operates Lithuania's sole refinery, which covers the majority of the country's refined product requirements and exports significant quantities of the surplus to the other Baltic States. Heavy rationalisation of the retail fuels network over the past decade has reduced the total number of service stations, thereby supporting higher average throughputs per site. We expect further consolidation in the retail fuel market, given the outlook for demand.

Market drivers
Outlook
Regulatory issues
Product quality
Overall position - net exporter
Fuels retailing
- Volumes
- Overall network development
- International oil companies
- Network efficiency
- Performance pacesetters in the retail market
Commercial fuels
Fuel marketing margins
Distribution of oil products
Oil product storage infrastructure
Crude oil delivery
- Country crude slate overview
Refining overview