Commodity Market Report

Lithuania downstream oil long-term outlook

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Oil demand in Lithuania is expected to dip in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Although we expect to see some recovery in 2021, we don't expect total oil demand to return to 2019 levels and instead we expect demand to enter a steady trajectory of decline from 2022. Poland's PKN ORLEN operates Lithuania's sole refinery, which covers the majority of the country's refined product requirements and exports significant quantities of the surplus to the other Baltic States. Heavy rationalisation of the retail fuels network over the past decade has reduced the total number of service stations, thereby supporting higher average throughputs per site. We expect further consolidation in the retail fuel market, given the outlook for demand.

Table of contents

  • Market drivers
  • Outlook
  • Regulatory issues
  • Product quality
  • Overall position - net exporter
    • Volumes
    • Overall network development
    • International oil companies
    • Network efficiency
    • Performance pacesetters in the retail market
  • Commercial fuels
  • Fuel marketing margins
  • Distribution of oil products
  • Oil product storage infrastructure
    • Country crude slate overview
  • Refining overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:

  • Key demand indicators
  • Total refined product demand
  • car parc by fuel type
  • Demand forecast (kt)
  • Trade balance
  • Key trading partners
  • Gasoline - net exporter
  • Diesel/gasoil - net exporter
  • Jet/kero - net exporter
  • Fuel oil - net exporter
  • Commercial diesel volumes
  • Main products: monthly unit gross margins
  • Main products: annual average unit gross margin
  • Storage and distribution infrastructure map
  • ORLEN Lietuva refinery profile
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Retail outlets by brand
  • Market Shares
  • Number of sites and average throughputs
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Crude input slate

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Lithuania downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 1.42 MB