Commodity Market Report
Nigeria retail fuels long-term outlook
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Report summary
Demand for refined products, particularly transport fuels, is expected to grow significantly in Nigeria over the next two decades. The decline in refining capacity utilisation due to chronic underinvestment means that the country imports the majority of its road transport fuel demand. However, there is an ongoing investment programme in the country’s existing refineries. In 2023, the Dangote refinery commenced its operations and initially faced a significant domestic crude supply challenge. The refinery will be fully operational by the end of 2024; once fully operational and if the domestic crude supply challenges get mitigated, the refinery will be a crucial player in helping Nigeria achieve its self-sufficiency goal, reducing reliance on imported refined products.
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