Nigeria retail fuels long-term outlook

Africa is one of the few regions where demand for refined products, particularly transport fuels, is expected to grow significantly over the next two decades. The decline in refining capacity utilisation due to chronic underinvestment means that the country imports the majority of its road transport fuel demand. However, there is an ongoing investment programme in the country’s existing refineries and a new refinery being built by Dangote. When the Dangote refinery begins operations in 2023, the country will see its dependence on imports decline. The absence of a predictive and clear fiscal environment has resulted in slow private sector participation in the downstream sector. There is a notable lack of foreign firms operating in the retail sector except some IOCs that have been in the market for several decades. Fuel smuggling continues to be an issue despite attempts by the government to prevent the illicit movement of fuels out of the country in borders areas.