Demand for refined products, particularly transport fuels, is expected to grow significantly in Nigeria over the next two decades. The decline in refining capacity utilisation due to chronic underinvestment means that the country imports the majority of its road transport fuel demand. However, there is an ongoing investment programme in the country’s existing refineries and a new refinery being built by Dangote. When the Dangote refinery begins operations in 2023, the country will see its dependence on imports decline. Fuel smuggling continues to be an issue despite attempts by the government to prevent the illicit movement of fuels out of the country in borders areas.