Oil products price forecast mid-month update May 2020

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for May 2020 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month and we have made changes to our monthly forecasts for 2020 and 2021. These changes reflect recent data releases and major market developments since our last update on 1 May. Our global composite refining margin weakened to US$0.19/bbl in May, driven by the sharp decline in refining margins in the US and Europe despite easing of lockdown measures. The composite is US$3.21/bbl below the five-year low. Refinery earnings are poor, given the combination of reduced crude runs and poor margins. We expect margins to improve slightly through June and July 2020, as transport demand recovers, but refinery runs lag demand recovery to enable stocks to draw. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published by close of business Monday 1 June.