Oil products price forecast update November 2020

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2022 on a regional level. Our global composite monthly refining margin recovered further in October to US$2.18/bbl driven by strength in gasoline and naphtha cracks. However, the weakness in middle distillate cracks continued to limit the upside to the composite margins. We forecast the composite margin to weaken through Q4 2020 as increasing lockdowns weighs heavily on gasoline and jet cracks globally. We expect to see increasing volatility in cracks through the next few months, as refiners try to balance returning from maintenance with extensive runs cuts and inter regional product imbalances. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Monday 16 November.