Oil products price forecast update October 2020

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2022 on a regional level. Our global composite refining margin recovered in September to US$1.2/bbl driven by strength in gasoline and naphtha cracks. However, the weakness in middle distillate cracks limited the upside to the composite margins. We expect the composite margins to weaken through Q4 2020 due to seasonally declining demand, but a tighter global gasoline market will prevent it returning to negative values. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Friday 16 October.