Regional product markets short-term outlook June 2021

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2022 on a regional level. In response to the near-term weaker demand outlook across parts of Asia, we have revised crude runs down in India, Thailand and other Asia, with the largest reduction in May. These reductions have been largely offset by stronger runs in China, where despite high regional maintenance crude runs have remained elevated given the stronger than forecast recovery in demand. To meet the stronger summer Atlantic basin gasoline demand outlook and current low stock levels in the US, we have revised US crude runs up through June – August 2021. For 2021, we expect global crude runs to recover by ~4 million b/d, an upward revision of 110 kb/d but remaining below 2019 levels by 3.5 million b/d.