Regional product markets short-term outlook September 2021

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2022 on a regional level. The near-term focus remains on the USGC as Gulf of Mexico platforms, refineries, and pipelines grapple with uncertainty on restart timelines after Hurricane Ida wreaked havoc across the region. PADD 3 crude runs decreased 1.6 million b/d to a total of 7.1 million b/d as a result of Hurricane Ida on Monday 30 August. For this monthly update we have assumed the impact of the duration is relatively short lived. With tighter than forecast gasoline stocks in the Atlantic basin and weaker jet fuel outlook, refiners will continue to run to meet gasoline and naphtha demand and continue to minimise middle distillate supply.