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Commodity Market Report

Turkey downstream oil long-term outlook

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03 February 2022

Turkey downstream oil long-term outlook

Report summary

Despite the country's recent geopolitical risks and devaluation of the Turkish Lira, Turkey's oil products demand remains on a solid upward trajectory and is considered to be the largest growth market in Europe. Government actions to stop the fraudulent use of base oil as diesel has reduced illegal fuel sales. SOCAR's 10Mt/yr Aliaga refinery opened in 2018 - breaking the long-held Tupras refining monopoly. The retail landscape changed drastically in 2010 and 2015 with the introduction of five-year service station dealer contracts. A key feature of the retail market remains the dominance of the DODO operating model. Poor margins have driven some international oil companies to sell their retail fuel businesses. The profitability of the sector has been severely affected in 2021 by the continued devaluation of the Turkish Lira, which has seen prices soar to double digits but margins collapse and even turn negative.

Table of contents

  • Market drivers
    • Car parc
    • Gasoline
    • Diesel/gas oil
    • Jet/kerosene
  • Regulatory issues
    • Retail fuel volumes
    • Overall network development
    • Network efficiency
    • Major players: competitive position
    • Major players: strategies
    • Petrol Ofisi (Vitol)
    • Shell Turcas (STAS)
    • BP
    • Total/M-Oil (OYAK)
    • LUKOIL/Akpet
    • Independent players
    • Opet
    • Petline
    • Others
    • Non-fuel retailing
    • Commercial fuels
    • Motor fuels
    • Aviation kerosene
    • Industrial/domestic gasoil
    • Marine bunkers
    • LPG
    • Retail fuels marketing
    • Distribution of oil products
    • Oil product storage infrastructure
    • Independent petroleum product storage
    • Refining overview

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

  • Total demand
  • Demand by product
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Network development and average site throughput
  • Service stations by company (at end 2020)
  • Retail fuel market share by company (2020)
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Annual retail fuel gross margins
  • Gasoline retail price breakdown (2021 average)
  • Diesel retail price breakdown (average 2021)
  • Storage and distribution infrastructure
  • Regional storage capacity

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Turkey downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 1.38 MB