Upstream mega-projects: implications for crude trade and refining

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Report summary

By 2025 Brazil's pre-salt and Norway's Johan Sverdrup will add 3.8 million b/d of supply from the Atlantic basin. Most of this crude will be of similar quality: relatively heavy and sweet, averaging 28° API. This will increase supply available to more complex refineries, and cause more to be routed to Asia.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Upstream mega-projects: implications for crude trade and refining

    PDF 1.70 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Pre-salt Brazil
    • Petrobras crisis risks production growth
  • Johan Sverdrup
  • Mega-project crude quality is strikingly similar
  • Volumes will trade at a discount to Brent
    • Pre-salt pushes supply beyond refining capacity
    • Refinery cancellations mean more exports
    • Pre-salt is Asia-bound
    • Europe's refining industry is shrinking
    • Some volumes will go beyond northern Europe

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:


  • Expected trade flows of mega-project crude by 2025
  • Brazil liquids production
  • North Sea liquids production
  • Mega-project oil reserves (billions of barrels) by crude quality
  • Atlantic basin* heavy crude production (<29° API)
  • Incremental supply from Atlantic basin by API band
  • Brazilian production versus refining throughput

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