Insight
Upstream mega-projects: implications for crude trade and refining
This report is currently unavailable
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
By 2025 Brazil's pre-salt and Norway's Johan Sverdrup will add 3.8 million b/d of supply from the Atlantic basin. Most of this crude will be of similar quality: relatively heavy and sweet, averaging 28° API. This will increase supply available to more complex refineries, and cause more to be routed to Asia.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Mega-projects
- Pre-salt Brazil
- Petrobras crisis risks production growth
- Johan Sverdrup
- Mega-project crude quality is strikingly similar
- Volumes will trade at a discount to Brent
-
Markets for pre-salt Brazil
- Pre-salt pushes supply beyond refining capacity
- Refinery cancellations mean more exports
- Pre-salt is Asia-bound
-
Markets for Johan Sverdrup
- Europe's refining industry is shrinking
- Some volumes will go beyond northern Europe
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Expected trade flows of mega-project crude by 2025
- Brazil liquids production
- North Sea liquids production
- Mega-project oil reserves (billions of barrels) by crude quality
- Atlantic basin* heavy crude production (<29° API)
- Incremental supply from Atlantic basin by API band
- Brazilian production versus refining throughput
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Tokyo Metals and Mining Briefing 2025
Ferrous market outlook, energy transition, and trade dynamics—key insights from Wood Mackenzie’s Metals and Mining Tokyo briefing.
$1,050
Insight
Implications of our tariff scenarios for oil and refining
We use our three tariff scenarios to chart paths forward to 2030 for oil fundamentals
$1,350
Insight
Q2 2025 pre-FID project tracker: major upstream projects progress despite geopolitical headwinds
Our Q2 2025 outlook for global pre-FID upstream projects.
$6,750
