Insight
Upstream mega-projects: implications for crude trade and refining
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
By 2025 Brazil's pre-salt and Norway's Johan Sverdrup will add 3.8 million b/d of supply from the Atlantic basin. Most of this crude will be of similar quality: relatively heavy and sweet, averaging 28° API. This will increase supply available to more complex refineries, and cause more to be routed to Asia.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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Mega-projects
- Pre-salt Brazil
- Petrobras crisis risks production growth
- Johan Sverdrup
- Mega-project crude quality is strikingly similar
- Volumes will trade at a discount to Brent
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Markets for pre-salt Brazil
- Pre-salt pushes supply beyond refining capacity
- Refinery cancellations mean more exports
- Pre-salt is Asia-bound
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Markets for Johan Sverdrup
- Europe's refining industry is shrinking
- Some volumes will go beyond northern Europe
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Expected trade flows of mega-project crude by 2025Brazil liquids productionNorth Sea liquids production
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Mega-project oil reserves (billions of barrels) by crude qualityAtlantic basin* heavy crude production (<29° API)Incremental supply from Atlantic basin by API bandBrazilian production versus refining throughput
What's included
This report contains:
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