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Framing a record Haynesville deal: digging into the Rockcliff rumor

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18 January 2023

Framing a record Haynesville deal: digging into the Rockcliff rumor

Report summary

The Haynesville is the hottest gas play in the Lower 48. With nearly 70 rigs running, it’s adding more supply than any other US region, including associated gas from the Permian. One specific private E&P with a material Texas position and growth story is Rockcliff. The company has been outspoken in its march for scale and peer-leading Haynesville performance metrics. And its largest backer – Quantum Energy Partners – is on a winning streak of monetizing shale investments. After initial rumors of a possible Rockcliff sale a year ago, attention has ratcheted up again with January 2023 speculation that TG Energy (a partnership between Tokyo Gas and Castleton Commodities) is getting close to a US$4.6 billion purchase. Tokyo Gas already participates in US LNG and a move to buy Rockcliff would indicate expansion plans from Cove Point into the Gulf Coast. We’ve built a range of valuation scenarios for Rockcliff to help clarify what a possible buyer like TG might be considering.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Event
  • The players
  • Strategy
  • Rockcliff growth
    • Value enhancers
    • Value risks
  • M&A comparisons
  • Diving into Carthage
  • Costs
  • Productivity
    • Cotton Valley upside
  • Hedging
  • Outcome

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Rockcliff leasehold map (WoodMac sub plays) and core ArkLaTex production
  • Rockcliff portfolio timeline prior to January 2023 TC sale rumor
  • Post-tax valuation sensitivities (US billions)
  • ArkLaTex M&A comps – Goodrich, Indigo, Vine, and GEP
  • Haynesville sub play development evolution
  • Haynesville capex by true vertical depth
  • Productivity map and Rockcliff lease lines
  • Appendix: Henry Hub prices (US$/mcf)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Framing a record Haynesville deal: digging into the Rockcliff rumor

    PDF 2.11 MB