Can copper supply keep up with surging demand?

The call on copper is soaring. Emerging sectors, combined with traditional end-users, are expected to increase copper demand by nearly a quarter by 2035. But investment in greenfield mines is failing to keep pace. To meet forecast copper demand growth, the industry will need to bring new mines online at roughly twice the rate of a decade ago – a huge ask.

Here’s why. Western miners remain cautious about committing capital to new mine supply, even as prices rise. In response, Chinese miners are seizing an opportunity to fully integrate value chains and increase their influence over global copper flows as demand accelerates.

What is pushing copper demand higher? Why are Western miners not responding at scale? Will Chinese-backed companies continue to fill the gap? WoodMac’s Copper Research team shared their insights from our recent Horizon report on the sector.

Copper demand growth is relentless

Four demand sectors are underpinning a stronger outlook for the copper market:

1. The rapid expansion of data centres is urgently increasing investment in power generation capacity and grids.
2. Shifting geopolitical winds are prompting governments to strengthen national security, including ratcheting up spending on defense and boosting infrastructure resilience and modernisation.
3. Low-carbon energy projects are consuming record amounts of copper.
4. Southeast Asia and India are becoming major consumers of copper as they industrialise at pace.

Consequently, Wood Mackenzie expects global copper demand to surge by 24%, reaching almost 43 Mtpa by 2035. Together, these four emerging demand disruptors will add 3 Mtpa – almost doubling growth from traditional sectors, including construction, transport and broader energy applications.  

The scale of the supply challenge is daunting

We estimate that 8 Mtpa of new mining capacity, in addition to 3.5 Mtpa of supply from direct use of scrap, will be required to balance the market in 2035. Factoring in inflation and tighter supply chains, the cost to deliver this supply growth is likely to exceed US$210 billion. In comparison, total capital investment in copper mining over the past six years amounted to only around US$76 billion.

Copper markets are flashing red, given the scale of new mine supply required. This isn’t about geology. We identify a robust pipeline of greenfield projects. The challenges, particularly for Western miners, are far more about investment and risk appetite.

Western miners are de-prioritising new mine supply

Western miners have historically dominated copper mine investment. Today, however, many are cautious about greenfield development, focusing instead on sustaining output as ore grades decline and addressing critical resource challenges – from fresh water to desalination – which demand significant capital. A strict focus on capital discipline, heightened ESG requirements and increasingly risk-averse investors are key constraints.

Financial hurdles are also a consideration. Developing major copper mines needs billions of dollars in upfront capital, and Western miners typically rely on private debt, with providers imposing increasingly demanding conditions. Some financing terms include stress tests at copper prices 20% to 30% below our forecasts. These constraints raise costs and can discourage investment in higher-risk countries with some of the richest undeveloped resources.

Even with current and forecast copper prices above the level required to sanction new copper mines, Western miners are continuing to keep their powder dry.  

Risk-tolerant Chinese companies are filling the gap

Unlike their Western counterparts, Chinese miners have aggressively pursued opportunities in higher-risk jurisdictions. Of the US$76 billion invested globally in green and brownfield copper supply between 2019 and 2025, around 50% came from Chinese miners.

This strategy goes beyond simple resource acquisition. Many Chinese miners continue to build fully integrated value chains that span mining, refining and manufacturing. By increasing control over each stage of the copper supply chain, Chinese companies are securing access to raw materials, reducing dependence on external suppliers and capturing greater margins. Integration also enables operational synergies, cost efficiencies and faster response to market volatility. All this positions Chinese firms to exert greater influence over global copper flows as demand accelerates.

Chinese state-owned miners also benefit from access to low-cost, long-term loans from domestic policy banks and operate under national strategic mandates rather than pure profit metrics. With fewer shareholder pressures, Chinese miners have also proven more risk-tolerant and willing to use infrastructure-for-resources deals to drive growth. This approach has already enabled China to dominate copper and cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, through projects such as Sicomines and Tenke Fungurume.

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