Flight path to net zero: aviation’s fuel outlook to 2050

With global air travel forecast to nearly triple from 2015 levels by 2050, the aviation industry faces a critical challenge: how to meet growing demand while delivering on net zero emissions targets. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to play a central role in reducing emissions, but questions remain about its scalability, cost and long-term impact. This analysis explores the outlook for aviation fuels in the context of global decarbonisation efforts, including the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. 

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Global aviation fuel demand continues to grow into the 2040s 

Passenger numbers and aviation capacity are both rising, but improvements in fuel efficiency are helping to slow the rate of increase in the jet fuel market. The post-Covid restructuring has accelerated efficiency gains as older, less efficient aircraft are permanently retired. Technological innovation, operational improvements and upgraded infrastructure all contribute to further gains. As a result, aviation fuel demand is expected to plateau by the mid-2040s. 

Policy momentum drives SAF adoption

International bodies such as IATA and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) have set ambitious emissions reduction targets, with SAF expected to play a central role alongside carbon offsets.

An increasing number of countries are introducing SAF policies, although approaches vary widely. The US is focused on incentives and supply targets, while Asian markets are developing volume-based mandates. European policy, by contrast, aims to stimulate demand. The EU leads global policy development through ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA), which introduces binding SAF blending obligations that rise to 70% by 2050, including a minimum of 35% synthetic aviation fuels (e-SAF). Non-compliance penalties are significant, with fines set at no less than twice the price difference between SAF and conventional jet fuel.

SAF penetration grows

In our Liquid Renewable Fuels Service global outlook, SAF meets nearly one-fifth of total aviation fuel demand by 2050, with Europe leading in adoption rates.

Rapid growth is expected over the next decade, primarily driven by bio-SAF production pathways. The Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) route initially dominates, as it is the most commercially mature and cost-effective option. However, by 2035, HEFA growth is constrained by the limited availability of waste oils and fats. Alternative bio-SAF routes such as Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) and Biomass-to-Liquid (BTL) are expected to emerge later this decade, though they face commercial and feedstock limitations. e-SAF is projected to begin scaling in the 2030s and expand significantly in the 2040s as supply chains mature and production costs decline.

Net zero requires maximum SAF deployment

Under our base case, global aviation emissions peak in the late 2030s. However, meeting decarbonisation targets will require a much more significant shift to low-carbon fuels. SAF could supply up to half of total aviation fuel demand by 2050 if feedstock availability, technological hurdles and cost barriers are addressed.

Maximising SAF deployment, in combination with other emissions-reduction strategies, will be essential to achieving net zero. The aviation industry’s decarbonisation journey will depend on coordinated policy action, innovation across production pathways, and substantial investment throughout the SAF value chain.

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