Need to know: gas in Winter 2026-27

As the impacts of geopolitical events in the Middle East are clearly demonstrating, today’s global gas markets are more interdependent and harder to predict than ever. In this complex environment, traders need eyes across energy value chains — from oil production to power generation — to understand where gas and LNG markets are headed next. 

For our Natural Gas Winter Outlook webinars, we assembled Wood Mackenzie experts across gas, LNG, oil and power to dive into the hot topics for an interconnected global market.  

Fill out the form at the top of the page to download the presentations from those events, or read on for short answers to the key questions facing gas traders in winter 2026. 

How is ongoing geopolitical turmoil impacting LNG trade flows and expectations? 

Prior to the Middle East conflict, Asia imported around 8 of Qatari and UAE LNG exports. Following the loss of these volumes, buyers scrambled to secure spot cargoes at increasingly elevated prices while adapting their gas demand strategies.  

Fuel switching has played a key role in several markets, particularly through gas-to-coal switching in the power sector, lowering LNG imports into Japan and South Korea. However, switching to alternative oil products has remained limited due to high oil product prices and constrained availability. In countries with fewer switching options, including Taiwan, Bangladesh and Thailand, buyers have continued to pay premium prices to secure supply for critical sectors such as power generation and fertiliser production.  

Europe has also felt the impact, with storage injections progressing more slowly this year. Competition with Asia for LNG cargoes has intensified in recent weeks as Europe sought a final boost to storage levels ahead of winter. This has triggered a sustained price rally, with both European and Asian gas prices reaching four-year highs and TTF breaching the symbolic 100€/MWh threshold in late October.  

The pace at which LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume and increase will be the key determinant of market tightness this winter and into 2027. How do we use satellite imagery to track production at LNG facilities in Qatar and the UAE? Find out in the European outlook. 

How are reactions in the oil market affecting gas and LNG? 

Missing oil from the Gulf and Russia means markets have lost volume equivalent to the existing production of Texas and New Mexico in 2026. Resultant higher prices have driven production growth in areas not impacted by the war on Iran, particularly the US Lower 48. That has led to huge amounts of additional associated gas from oil drilling, pushing down benchmark Henry Hub prices We expect Permian gas supply and pipeline capacity growth to be fairly well aligned through 2027, but if rising oil production continues to lift production of associated gas, flows could hit pipeline constraints by the end of next year.  

How much US gas supply growth in 2027 will come from associated gas and how much from dry gas in the Haynesville and elsewhere? Download the North America presentation to find out. 

How is North American power and data centre growth impacting gas and LNG demand? 

From less than 1% annually over the past ten years, US power demand will grow by 3.5% annually over the next decade. The key reason for this dramatic shift is the rise in demand from data centres, which by 2035 we expect to account for about 25% of total US demand. Much of the supply to meet this demand will come from gas generation. 

We’re currently tracking about 100 gigawatts of grid-connected gas generation projects due to come online over the next five years or so. However, that’s not the end of the story: many data centre projects are opting for co-located gas generation in their search for speed-to-power. 

How much behind-the-meter gas generating capacity do we expect to be built over the next five years, and how much overall gas demand growth can be expected? Find out in the North American outlook.   

How likely is Europe to run out of gas this winter? 

European gas storage will be close to 75% full at the end of October — well below the five-year range as the region heads into winter. A series of summer heatwaves drove significant demand for cooling. With drought reducing hydro generation, warm rivers impacting French nuclear power and coal generating capacity mothballed, gas was heavily relied upon to take up the slack.  

Fuel switching has already reduced European industrial gas demand by almost 20% since 2022; any further large demand reduction would therefore only come at the cost of a recession. Based on current market forward prices and assuming a ten-year weather normal, we expect European storage to end the winter only 17% full. However, a cold winter scenario could take it even lower, creating large upside risk to prices. Beyond this average stock number hide large regional disparities across Europe – some countries will be worse affected.  

You can find out the scale of the downside risk and which countries are most likely to run out of gas by downloading our European outlook. 

How is this season’s El Niño set to impact gas and LNG demand? 

In Asia, El Niño as a weather phenomenon typically means a warmer, wetter winter across Japan, South Korea and parts of China. Our modelling indicates higher temperatures would theoretically reduce LNG imports by up to 2.5 million tonnes across the three countries. Later, higher rainfall would keep demand lower into spring and beyond. Lower Asian demand would be positive for Europe, helping to replenish depleted storage. 

Regulation and other factors remain important wildcards for this scenario, however — find out more in our outlook. 

In the US, El Niño has a strong correlation with a very mild overall winter. We estimate that one standard deviation in winter temperatures equates to around and additional 500 billion cubic feet of gas left in storage at the end of March. However, rather than a complete lack of cold air in North America, El Niño’s east-west atmospheric flows tend to keep the cold from dropping south.  

For a more detailed examination of how El Niño could impact US gas demand, download the North America presentation. 

How quickly will gas prices come down after the winter? 

The supply shortfall today is supporting elevated prices further along the forward curve. We expect Europe to continue to attract marginal LNG cargoes through 2027, keeping prices higher for longer. Any additional supply disruption, even in less obvious parts of the market, would tighten balances further and add upside to prices. Find out where in the European outlook presentation. 

If flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise, oil prices could fall rapidly. Lower oil product prices would improve their competitiveness against gas, increasing fuel switching in some Asian markets. 

However, if disruptions persist and LNG flows through Hormuz do not return to normal, the market could become critically tight. In that scenario, there would be barely enough gas available globally to meet essential demand in Asia while replenishing European storage to minimum requirements ahead of winter 2027/28. 

Now complete the form to download the webinar presentations, which include a full range of charts and data along with a detailed look at storage expectations through to Spring 2027. Or find out more about how Wood Mackenzie Trading Analytics data, including real-time observations from the world’s largest proprietary sensor network, can help you see moves before the market.