Global thermal short-term outlook August 2023

August was a tale of two different thermal coal markets. In the high-CV market, coal prices increased across the board and followed the movement in LNG prices. Fear of supply disruptions from major Australian LNG export terminals shot up gas and eventually high-CV coal prices followed. However, prices declined in the low-CV coal market. Declining Chinese appetite for low-CV coal and increasing competition from Australia and Russia continue to pressure Indonesian coal prices. Yet, steady Indian demand provided some support to the low-CV market. Demand in China and India remained robust in H1, whereas European demand remained lackluster throughout H1 2023. How will the thermal coal demand-supply dynamics behave in H2 2023 and what will be the impact of weather changes on the market?