24 hours of turbulence add uncertainty to winter market

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17 September 2019

24 hours of turbulence add uncertainty to winter market

Report summary

Last week, three announcements were received by Europe’s market that curtail upstream output, gas transit capacity and power production capability. By themselves, they may not have brought a substantial response in such an oversupplied market. But together, they result in significant implications for the European market over the peak winter demand period as well as longer term ramifications. • The Dutch government announced that Europe’s biggest gas field, Groningen, would halt normal production by 2022 – few years earlier than had previously been planned • The European Court of Justice (ECJ) announced that German regulator Bnetza had to halve the capacity allowance on a key transit artery, OPAL, for Europe’s biggest gas supplier, Gazprom • The French nuclear giant, EDF, announced that there were issues with welding standards that could affect up to 20 nuclear reactors; as Europe’s biggest power exporter, a decline in France’s production capability would be felt across Western Europe

Table of contents

  • Groningen output – down but not out yet
  • Gazprom taken back to 2009 with OPAL decision reversal
  • Gas to benefit from French nuclear outage
  • How bullish should we be?

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • Groningen production caps imposed in 2015-19 vs Wood Mackenzie profile
  • Groningen cap timeline
  • 2019 Russian exports by major route vs capacity
  • OPAL timeline and Nord Stream utilisation

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    24 hours of turbulence add uncertainty to winter market

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