Insight
Why have we lowered our China gas production outlook?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In our H1 2019 gas update, we have reduced our China gas production outlook, which provokes a greater need for imports in the long term. This is despite a more modest rate of demand growth than in our previous forecast. The downgrade is not across the board. In fact, we are more optimistic on conventional and tight gas production than before. But the decrease in coal bed methane and shale gas in our forecast outweighs the increase in our production outlook for more established resources. Chinese indigenous production will drive China's growing appetite for LNG, and hence influence global gas spot prices too. The outlook for domestic production is dynamic as new gas resources struggle for growth and legacy supply sources prosper. The global gas market needs to keep as keen an eye on China supply as it does on demand.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Introduction
-
Conventional supply
- Increased investment drives higher conventional gas output
-
Unconventional supply
- Tight gas will underpin China’s unconventional gas output
- CBM and CMM progress remains challenging
- Synthetic natural gas (coal-to-gas) remains a minor contributor
- Shale gas facing technical and commercial challenges
- Risks to this forecast
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
H1 2019 domestic supplyChanges versus H2 2018 outlookShale gas outlook by basin
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Canada upstream in brief
Our view on the key events as they unfold, covering oil sands, unconventional plays, western Canada, Arctic, and offshore East Coast.
$700
Insight
China’s 15th Five-Year Energy Plan and Action Plan for Carbon Peaking: implications for the natural gas sector
Our interpretation of the policies and their directional impacts on China's gas demand growth
$950
