Insight

Why have we lowered our China gas production outlook?

16 August 2019

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16 August 2019

Why have we lowered our China gas production outlook?

Report summary

In our H1 2019 gas update, we have reduced our China gas production outlook, which provokes a greater need for imports in the long term. This is despite a more modest rate of demand growth than in our previous forecast. The downgrade is not across the board. In fact, we are more optimistic on conventional and tight gas production than before. But the decrease in coal bed methane and shale gas in our forecast outweighs the increase in our production outlook for more established resources. Chinese indigenous production will drive China's growing appetite for LNG, and hence influence global gas spot prices too. The outlook for domestic production is dynamic as new gas resources struggle for growth and legacy supply sources prosper. The global gas market needs to keep as keen an eye on China supply as it does on demand.

Executive summary
Introduction
Conventional supply
- Increased investment drives higher conventional gas output
Unconventional supply
- Tight gas will underpin China’s unconventional gas output
- CBM and CMM progress remains challenging
- Synthetic natural gas (coal-to-gas) remains a minor contributor
- Shale gas facing technical and commercial challenges
Risks to this forecast