China’s public debt level is at an alarming stage, with total government debt reaching 96% in 2022. The risks of a debt crisis vary across provinces. Shaanxi, Guangxi, Qinghai, Yunnan, Sichuan, Jilin, Gansu and Guizhou provinces are at the top of the troubling list. China will try to manage a slow deleveraging process to avoid a debt crisis. However, it will lead to a material slowdown in infrastructure investment and associated commodity demand.