China economic focus June 2023: local government debt at risk

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China’s public debt level is at an alarming stage, with total government debt reaching 96% in 2022. The risks of a debt crisis vary across provinces. Shaanxi, Guangxi, Qinghai, Yunnan, Sichuan, Jilin, Gansu and Guizhou provinces are at the top of the troubling list. China will try to manage a slow deleveraging process to avoid a debt crisis. However, it will lead to a material slowdown in infrastructure investment and associated commodity demand.

Table of contents

  • Highlights
  • Why not stimulate infrastructure?
  • How large is local government debt?
  • What are the solutions?
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Country comparison of public debt level
  • Local government debt by provinces
  • Liability ratio of official debt
  • The interest rates of urban investment bonds
  • Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • Industrial production and retail sales
  • Trade
  • Inflation
  • Property
  • Investment
  • Money supply (M2)
  • Required reserve ratio

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China economic focus June 2023: local government debt at risk

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