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China economic focus September 2023: three factors for recovery
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
We forecast China's GDP growth for 2023 and 2024 to be 5.2% and 4.8%, respectively. It requires a recovery in the property sector, industrial production and exports. In the recent release of the August data, we have observed some improvement in industrial production and consumer demand. While we need to monitor the green shoots of the domestic recovery in August data in the following months, external demand and the property sector are perpetuating more uncertainties around whether and when the recovery will catch up.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Has the Chinese economy started to recuperate?
- Will the stimulus turn the construction sector around?
- Will the resurgence in industrial production continue?
- Will orders return to China as the global economy recovers?
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Manufacturing PMI vs service PMIInventory growth hits the bottomExchange rate changes since the beginning of 2023
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Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China dataManufacturing PMIIndustrial production and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
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