China economic focus September 2023: three factors for recovery
We forecast China's GDP growth for 2023 and 2024 to be 5.2% and 4.8%, respectively. It requires a recovery in the property sector, industrial production and exports. In the recent release of the August data, we have observed some improvement in industrial production and consumer demand. While we need to monitor the green shoots of the domestic recovery in August data in the following months, external demand and the property sector are perpetuating more uncertainties around whether and when the recovery will catch up.