Perspectives - Metals and Mining - August 2024

Economic momentum is waning in China and other important economies, undermining the outlook for commodities. Markets now expect an accelerated loosening policy with US interest rates 200bp lower at 3.5% by July 2025 – a dark portent for 2024 but a potential boost for 2025. Overcapacity in Chinese (and Chinese-funded) supply is a more dominant feature of markets, hurting battery raw materials and smelters in particular. A steeper loosening monetary stance will be a welcome respite when it begins in earnest. The end of the northern hemisphere summer lull, plus India's monsoon season, should brighten the demand outlook as we head toward 2025. In addition to market dynamics, in this issue we take a look at diversified miner spending, a new potential nickel squeeze, and recent EV trends. A deeper view on each commodity can be found within the relevant commodities' Costs, Concentrates and Markets services. Please download the attached slide document to access the complete report.