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Global coal M&A activity: Australia drives rebound
Yancoal leads in bidding for Coal & Allied assets
$1,100.00
Summary
Global coal M&A spend (ex. China and India) rebounded strongly in H1 2017, but the number of deals continued to fall. While we do not presently report on China specific transactions, the potential mega merger between Shenhua and China Goudian to create a coal-power titan would dwarf coal transactions worldwide. Early signs of competition and price escalation for prized assets re-emerged following Yancoal and Glencore's short bidding duel for Rio Tinto's Coal & Allied operations.
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Commodity market report
Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Capacity-oriented policy steps drive seaborne markets
As coal demand from China declines, India's demand grows to overtake China as the largest thermal coal importing country in the world.
$6,750.00
Summary
As emphasis on coal alternatives grows in China, it is apparent that the height of thermal coal demand, supply and imports is past us, having peaked in 2013. China continues to struggle with structural overcapacity in its power and industrial sectors. However, as imported thermal coal demand from China declines overtime, India's demand grows to overtake China as the largest thermal coal importing country in the world.
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Commodity market report
Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Supply growth pressuring prices
With Australian mines returning after the recent cyclone and other global producers expanding, prices should fall in the near term.
$6,750.00
Summary
With Australian mines returning after the recent cyclone and other global producers expanding, prices should fall in the near term. But, Nippon Steel’s switch to index-based pricing for quarterly contracts will add some uncertainties, while China’s policy efforts to allow producers to pay back debt will hold LV prices somewhat over marginal costs, averaging US$115/t FOB between 2019 and 2022. India is the key driver to long-term demand growth, which will elevate prices to US$128/t by 2035.
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Commodity market report
China coal long-term outlook H1 2017
China will drive global coal prices near term, but growing demand elsewhere in Asia will drive the country's domestic coal prices long term.
$3,400.00
Summary
Government policies have been used to control China's coal market for the second consecutive year. To ensure coal and related industries operate stably, the government has announced more policies affecting both supply and demand. We believe this intervention will continue in the near term. China will drive global coal prices in the near term. However, growing demand elsewhere in Asia will drive China's domestic coal prices in the long term. Demand for both thermal and metallurgical coal will decline in the long term. On the thermal coal side, energy demand per capita is reducing as China's economy shifts from manufacturing to services. Meanwhile, coal's share in energy demand is reducing as demand increases for renewable energy sources. On the metallurgical coal side, the use of more scrap in the steel industry is taking its toll on hot metal and subsequent coal demand.
What's included