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  • Insight

    US met coal miners chase more growth in 2018 but competition intensifies

    • 19 April 2018

    US metallurgical coal exports are unlikely to grow this year.

    $1,100.00

    Summary

    US metallurgical coal producers have experienced exceedingly good margins on coal sales over the last year, from high metallurgical coal prices caused by supply disruptions in Australia. This has led to plans for US mine expansions in 2018. Based on announcements by producers, we estimate that there is an additional 6 Mt of US metallurgical coal growth planned for this year. However, the US is not the only country looking to capitalize on the strong metallurgical market in 2018. Will global expansion plans flood the market and ruin the party?

    What's included

    • Document

      US met coal miners chase more growth in 2018 but competition intensifies

      PDF 275.85 KB

  • Commodity market report

    China coal long-term outlook H2 2017

    • 12 December 2017

    Government policy will be the key driver in the near term, but the market will stabilise while also declining in size in the long term.

    $3,400.00

    Summary

    After two years of government policies characterised by ambitious targets, China's coal market has reversed into a tight supply situation. As a result, coal prices have soared – and also sent prices for LNG, steel, cement and some other industrial products to record highs. Efforts to combat smog have reduced annual coal demand by 100 Mt. Restrictions at ports have led to volatility in the country's monthly thermal coal imports. China is now trying to reduce the impact of its policies on its economy and industry by revising its aggressive capacity-cutting targets. Longer term, the country remains intent on establishing an energy landscape where clean energy takes the lead. So, where does that leave coal? Read our H2 2017 long-term outlook to find out how the thermal and metallurgical markets will fare and what role imports will play in the future supply mix.

    What's included

    • Document

      China coal long-term outlook H2 2017.pdf

      PDF 1.01 MB

    • Document

      03 cms china coal demand data.xls

      XLS 1.82 MB

    • Document

      04 CMS China Coal Supply data.xls

      XLS 373.00 KB

    • Document

      05 CMS China Coal Infrastructure data.xls

      XLS 1.46 MB

    • Document

      02 CMS China Coal Prices data.xls

      XLS 1.82 MB

    • Document

      01 CMS China Coal Executive Summary data.xls

      XLS 4.16 MB

    • Document

      China coal long-term outlook H2 2017

      ZIP 5.57 MB

  • Commodity market report

    India coal short-term outlook March 2018: growing economy sorting out the pains for coal imports

    • 10 April 2018

    Improved industrial production supports coal demand as Ministry of Coal seek alternatives to improve domestic supply

    $1,350.00

    Summary

    Index of Industrial production grew more than 7% in December and February. Cement production was up 20%, steel production 5% and power generation 6% during December to February period as compared to the year before. This was all on a low base, as late 2016 and early 2017 was impacted by Demonetisation in November 2016. However, all this growth resulted in a 5% increase in coal demand over the same period. With several factors supporting India's growth story in 2018, we look at the potential impact of this demand on the seaborne market for thermal and metallurgical coal.

    What's included

    • Document

      cms india short term outlook march 2018.xls

      XLS 1022.50 KB

    • Document

      India coal short-term outlook March 2018: growing economy sorting out the pains for coal imports

      PDF 442.90 KB

    • Document

      India coal short-term outlook March 2018: growing economy sorting out the pains for coal imports

      ZIP 1009.08 KB

  • Commodity market report

    Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2017: A China story through early 2020s, then India

    • 12 December 2017

    Met coal is facing lower demand during China’s winter season, a mid-term period of stagnation, then long-term Indian demand growth.

    $6,750.00

    Summary

    Most metallurgical coal producers have recently benefitted from high prices. Now, China has imposed industrial restrictions for their winter season, which should lower import demand in the near-term. However, China is likely to support domestic prices for a few years, which will also help seaborne coals. Demand will stagnate until India growth takes off after 2025.

    What's included

    • Document

      CMS price charts metallurgical trade long-term 2017 H2 data.xls

      XLS 2.12 MB

    • Document

      Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2017: A China story through early 2020s, then India

      PDF 364.11 KB

    • Document

      Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2017.pdf

      PDF 1.55 MB