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US met coal miners chase more growth in 2018 but competition intensifies
US metallurgical coal exports are unlikely to grow this year.
$1,100.00
Summary
US metallurgical coal producers have experienced exceedingly good margins on coal sales over the last year, from high metallurgical coal prices caused by supply disruptions in Australia. This has led to plans for US mine expansions in 2018. Based on announcements by producers, we estimate that there is an additional 6 Mt of US metallurgical coal growth planned for this year. However, the US is not the only country looking to capitalize on the strong metallurgical market in 2018. Will global expansion plans flood the market and ruin the party?
What's included
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Commodity market report
China coal long-term outlook H2 2017
Government policy will be the key driver in the near term, but the market will stabilise while also declining in size in the long term.
$3,400.00
Summary
After two years of government policies characterised by ambitious targets, China's coal market has reversed into a tight supply situation. As a result, coal prices have soared – and also sent prices for LNG, steel, cement and some other industrial products to record highs. Efforts to combat smog have reduced annual coal demand by 100 Mt. Restrictions at ports have led to volatility in the country's monthly thermal coal imports. China is now trying to reduce the impact of its policies on its economy and industry by revising its aggressive capacity-cutting targets. Longer term, the country remains intent on establishing an energy landscape where clean energy takes the lead. So, where does that leave coal? Read our H2 2017 long-term outlook to find out how the thermal and metallurgical markets will fare and what role imports will play in the future supply mix.
What's included
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Commodity market report
India coal short-term outlook March 2018: growing economy sorting out the pains for coal imports
Improved industrial production supports coal demand as Ministry of Coal seek alternatives to improve domestic supply
$1,350.00
Summary
Index of Industrial production grew more than 7% in December and February. Cement production was up 20%, steel production 5% and power generation 6% during December to February period as compared to the year before. This was all on a low base, as late 2016 and early 2017 was impacted by Demonetisation in November 2016. However, all this growth resulted in a 5% increase in coal demand over the same period. With several factors supporting India's growth story in 2018, we look at the potential impact of this demand on the seaborne market for thermal and metallurgical coal.
What's included
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Commodity market report
Global metallurgical coal long-term outlook H2 2017: A China story through early 2020s, then India
Met coal is facing lower demand during China’s winter season, a mid-term period of stagnation, then long-term Indian demand growth.
$6,750.00
Summary
Most metallurgical coal producers have recently benefitted from high prices. Now, China has imposed industrial restrictions for their winter season, which should lower import demand in the near-term. However, China is likely to support domestic prices for a few years, which will also help seaborne coals. Demand will stagnate until India growth takes off after 2025.
What's included