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The long term North American refinery economics story mainly focuses on an emerging gasoline surplus. As fuel efficiency gains are forecast to outpace vehicle miles travelled, gasoline demand is forecast to decline. This will force refiners to find a new home for surplus gasoline, shifting long term regional pricing dynamics throughout Canada and the United States. As gasoline flows shift towards different domestic and foreign markets, questions of infrastructure and price depression emerge, ultimately raising the prospect of potential rationalization.

Total's corporate strategy is focused on upstream portfolio renewal, a growing gas portfolio and preparing for a low-carbon future. A stronger Total emerged from the downturn, following aggressive spending cuts, asset sales and greater capital discipline. Portfolio-wide divestment targets saw Total shed non-core downstream European assets while maintaining a focus cost reduction and improving market share where it has competitive advantage. Notably, Total effectively exited the Italian market when its joint venture with ERG was disbanded. The company also sold its fuels marketing businesses in Turkey and its minority stake in the Schwedt refinery. Total's European downstream position is now much leaner and concentrated around core supply areas where it retains a competitive advantage. Expansion of the global fuels marketing business is concentrated on high-growth regions outside Europe, notably Africa, Mexico and Saudi Arabia.      

Finnish road diesel demand continues to grow in the medium term, whereas gasoline – like most other oil products – remains in structural decline. With a large refining system relative to domestic demand, Finland retains a substantial surplus in oil products and relies on the export market to clear this imbalance. The two domestic oil refineries - Porvoo and Naantali – are both owned by national oil company Neste. Also the market leader in fuel distribution and retail, Neste dominates the inland wholesale market as it effectively sets the ex-refinery product prices for third party fuels marketers. Finland's retail network has been consolidating for several years and it has the highest proportion of automated service stations in Europe at nearly 60% of all sites.