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  • Insight

    End of the ICE age? Europe's shift from oil to electric powered vehicles

    • 30 August 2017

    Policy support for "zero tailpipe emissions" from cars is building in Europe resulting in significant impact on oil and power markets

    $1,350.00

    Summary

    Policy support for "zero tailpipe emissions" from light-duty vehicles is building in Europe. In several countries – including France, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Norway – legislators and governments have announced their intentions to end the sale of conventional gasoline and diesel cars by 2040 at the latest. If such policies were to gain momentum across Europe, then – in today's terms – annual passenger car sales of 17 million and roughly 3.6 million b/d of road fuel demand from conventional cars could be at stake. This report provides an overview of those proposals, including the ambiguities behind many of the proposals. Furthermore, we present our base case for EV adoption in Europe, as sales of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars are increasingly displaced by Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) over the next two decades. The associated impacts on gasoline and diesel demand are assessed alongside the impacts on European power markets.

    What's included

    • Document

      End of the ICE age? Europe's shift from oil to electric powered vehicles

      PDF 319.74 KB

  • Insight

    Oil product markets in 2017: midway to a good year

    • 17 July 2017

    A midyear review of refinery margins and product prices with an outlook for H2 2017.

    $900.00

    Summary

    Refinery margins were relatively strong in H1 2017 and look set to remain robust for the rest of the year. Ample crude supply and strong product demand growth has helped. Fundamentals for refining remain positive as capacity additions have slowed down and operational problems have limited utilisation in some regions. We forecast that 2017 will continue to be another good year for refiners.

    What's included

    • Document

      Oil product markets in 2017: midway to a good year

      PDF 275.95 KB

  • Insight

    Smooth sailing or rough seas? Updated analysis of the IMO bunker sulphur changes

    • 23 August 2017

    The forthcoming change in IMO regulations on the quality of marine bunkers, impacts the mix of fuels consumed by the shipping sector in 2020

    $2,700.00

    Summary

    The forthcoming change in IMO regulations on the quality of marine bunker fuel impacts the mix of fuel types consumed by the shipping sector in 2020. The IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee met again in July 2017 (MEPC 71), but many uncertainties surrounding the implementation path for the legislation remain. This insight summarises our latest view, providing an update on the article published in early 2017. Our base-case assumptions on compliance, scrubber penetration and ULSFO availability remain largely unchanged. The insight provides our latest forecasts for bunker fuel prices and crude differentials consistent with our H1 2017 Brent price forecast and global refined product imbalances. We have added a forecast for the ULSFO crack spread in this latest edition. And we also provide new commentary on the risk of established bunkering hubs losing market share as the IMO regulations have implications for relative regional marine fuel pricing and supply.

    What's included

    • Document

      Smooth sailing or rough seas - Updated analysis of the IMO bunker sulphur changes.pdf (1)

      PDF 1.84 MB

    • Document

      Smooth sailing or rough seas - data and charts.xls (1)

      XLS 431.00 KB

    • Document

      Smooth sailing or rough seas? Updated analysis of the IMO bunker sulphur changes

      ZIP 1.77 MB

  • Commodity market report

    North America product markets short-term outlook September 2017

    • 05 September 2017

    Incorporates price forecasts and differentials and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2018.

    $1,250.00

    Summary

    This monthly update incorporates price forecasts and differentials, crude runs, refining margins and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2018.

    What's included

    • Document

      Balances USA Sep 17.xls

      XLS 4.16 MB

    • Document

      Balances Canada Sep 17.xls

      XLS 1.59 MB

    • Document

      Balances Mexico Sep 17.xls

      XLS 1.62 MB

    • Document

      Pricing NYH Sep2017.xls

      XLS 1.15 MB

    • Document

      Pricing USGC Sep2017.xls

      XLS 2.00 MB

    • Document

      Balances USA PADD 1-5 Sep 17.xlsx

      XLSX 532.81 KB

    • Document

      Report USA September 2017.pdf

      PDF 1.32 MB

    • Document

      North America product markets short-term outlook September 2017

      ZIP 4.58 MB