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Commodity market report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2017
Revised global demand outlook and modest nearby output growth (for now) points to a balanced aluminium market over the next few years.
$6,750.00
Summary
The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Our assessment of market fundamentals points to a global market balance that is close to balanced over the next few years. We now expect a market surplus of just 400 kt in 2017 followed by a balanced-to-slight deficit market over the 2018-2020 period. The main drivers of this outlook are an upward revision to demand growth in world ex-China coupled with some output restraint in China on the back of possible curbs on unauthorised new capacity and pollution related cutbacks. However, the market will continue to carry a high level of inventory with stocks in terms of days of consumption still running well above our long term trend of 70 days.
What's included
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Commodity market report
Global zinc long-term outlook Q2 2017
The zinc price is forecast to regain momentum in the second half of the year when zinc stocks are forecast to fall to critically low levels
$6,750.00
Summary
The Global Zinc Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2035. In the near to medium term the critical issue for the market is the timing of the return to full production of major zinc mines owned by Glencore. In medium to long term, the key issue is whether the zinc mining industry will be able to develop sufficient new mine capacity to offset scheduled mine closures and the incremental increase in global demand.
What's included
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Commodity market report
Global copper long-term outlook Q2 2017
Largely balanced market expected near term, before emerging supply deficits set the scene for higher prices early in the next decade.
$6,750.00
Summary
The copper metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of copper supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. Global mine supply has been at the forefront of market discussions in recent months with mine output (after disruptions) set to shrink for the first time since 2011 this year. In terms of the refined market, however, the impact will be limited by a forecast draw down in raw material inventories as well as higher scrap consumption. Beyond 2020, there will be a period of consistent supply deficits and with metal inventories being eroded well below equilibrium levels of 65 days, there will be a strong recovery in prices. This will provide sufficient confidence to encourage new supply to the market. Once new supply starts to reach the market, surpluses should emerge with prices reversing their upward trend and falling to our forecast long-term incentive price by 2026.
What's included
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Commodity market report
Global lead short-term outlook August 2017
Lead crept forward slightly, left behind on price by other base metals, despite deepening supply worries as peak metal demand approaches.
$1,350.00
Summary
Lead proved to be a laggard during August finishing up 3.3% at $2373/t, barely gaining value and being left behind by the other base metals. Mostly trading in a narrow range, it did manage a one-day flirtation with an eight-month price high, but this lasted just one day. The trigger for this price spike was the UN sanctions again North Korea cutting lead concentrate supplies to China in a time when the latter is desperate for supply. Worries also persist over global refined metal supply with exchange stocks falling further and supply of lead scrap tightening even more as peak demand season approaches.
What's included