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Commodity market report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018
Tight medium term fundamentals to support prices, but rising interest rates and protectionism pose a risk.
$6,750.00
Summary
The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. We project a tight global balance out to 2022 on firm demand expansion and China capacity restraint. Our assessment of global fundamentals continues to point to a tight market in terms of days of consumption. A reduced pace of output in China on the back of pollution controls and restrictions on capacity build will cap output growth. Outside China, we see output additions in the US, Middle East and India. Beyond 2022 China’s supply side reforms will place a limit on capacity additions and shift the focus of future additions to capacity to the world ex-China.
What's included
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Commodity market report
Global nickel short-term outlook March 2018
Nickel prices stay high but an end-March dip coincides with signals of weakening demand.
$1,350.00
Summary
Nickel prices remain high for most of March but a dip late in the month coincides with mounting signals of weakening stainless demand. As European mills struggle with imports from Asia, a downward adjustment in China is likely. And all along, the spectre of still higher NPI production remains.
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Commodity market report
Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2018
The iron ore market is entering a cyclical downturn with the low point occurring in 2019 (price forecast: $62/t CFR).
$6,750.00
Summary
The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2040. The iron ore market is entering a cyclical downturn with the low point occurring in 2019 (price forecast: $62/t CFR). Breakeven analysis suggests a medium term "floor price" of $50-55/t CFR but we peg our forecast above this level to reflect a committed approach to supply side discipline and value maximisation over growth. Margin compression is inevitable but the transition towards a quality based multi-tiered pricing structure means that suppliers of high grade sinter fines and concentrates will fare relatively well, while suppliers of low grade sinter fines will need to continue offering heavy discounts.
What's included
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Commodity market report
Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2018
Thus far, new mine supply has been unable to replenish concentrate stocks to support robust growth in refined zinc production
$6,750.00
Summary
The Global Zinc Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2035. In the medium to long term, the key issue is whether the zinc mining industry will be able to develop sufficient new mine capacity to offset scheduled mine closures and the incremental increase in global demand. This structural issue has played a pivotal role in the zinc price climbing to its highest level for 10 years in recent months.
What's included