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  • Commodity market report

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018

    • 26 March 2018

    Tight medium term fundamentals to support prices, but rising interest rates and protectionism pose a risk.

    $6,750.00

    Summary

    The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. We project a tight global balance out to 2022 on firm demand expansion and China capacity restraint. Our assessment of global fundamentals continues to point to a tight market in terms of days of consumption. A reduced pace of output in China on the back of pollution controls and restrictions on capacity build will cap output growth. Outside China, we see output additions in the US, Middle East and India. Beyond 2022 China’s supply side reforms will place a limit on capacity additions and shift the focus of future additions to capacity to the world ex-China.

    What's included

    • Document

      Aluminium Tables Q1 2018.pdf

      PDF 1.18 MB

    • Document

      Production rankings aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 471.50 KB

    • Document

      Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 278.00 KB

    • Document

      Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 855.00 KB

    • Document

      Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 588.50 KB

    • Document

      Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 1.01 MB

    • Document

      Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 700.00 KB

    • Document

      Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 386.50 KB

    • Document

      Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 253.50 KB

    • Document

      Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018

      PDF 960.65 KB

    • Document

      Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018

      ZIP 3.25 MB

    • Document

      Executive summary

      PDF 83.92 KB

    • Document

      Demand

      PDF 250.88 KB

    • Document

      Supply

      PDF 450.82 KB

    • Document

      Supply-demand balances

      PDF 292.85 KB

  • Commodity market report

    Global nickel short-term outlook March 2018

    • 29 March 2018

    Nickel prices stay high but an end-March dip coincides with signals of weakening demand.

    $1,350.00

    Summary

    Nickel prices remain high for most of March but a dip late in the month coincides with mounting signals of weakening stainless demand. As European mills struggle with imports from Asia, a downward adjustment in China is likely. And all along, the spectre of still higher NPI production remains.

    What's included

    • Document

      global nickel short-term outlook march 2018.pdf

      PDF 415.38 KB

    • Document

      Global nickel STO data tables March 2018.xls

      XLS 417.50 KB

  • Commodity market report

    Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2018

    • 13 April 2018

    The iron ore market is entering a cyclical downturn with the low point occurring in 2019 (price forecast: $62/t CFR).

    $6,750.00

    Summary

    The Global Iron Ore Market Long-term Outlook provides detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the iron ore market to 2040. The iron ore market is entering a cyclical downturn with the low point occurring in 2019 (price forecast: $62/t CFR). Breakeven analysis suggests a medium term "floor price" of $50-55/t CFR but we peg our forecast above this level to reflect a committed approach to supply side discipline and value maximisation over growth. Margin compression is inevitable but the transition towards a quality based multi-tiered pricing structure means that suppliers of high grade sinter fines and concentrates will fare relatively well, while suppliers of low grade sinter fines will need to continue offering heavy discounts.

    What's included

    • Document

      Global iron ore markets long-term outlook data 2018 Q1.xls

      XLS 1.16 MB

    • Document

      Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2018

      PDF 1.15 MB

    • Document

      Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2018

      ZIP 1.39 MB

    • Document

      Executive summary

      PDF 97.99 KB

    • Document

      Demand

      PDF 238.47 KB

    • Document

      Supply

      PDF 254.10 KB

    • Document

      Supply-demand balances

      PDF 722.42 KB

  • Commodity market report

    Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2018

    • 27 March 2018

    Thus far, new mine supply has been unable to replenish concentrate stocks to support robust growth in refined zinc production

    $6,750.00

    Summary

    The Global Zinc Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2035. In the medium to long term, the key issue is whether the zinc mining industry will be able to develop sufficient new mine capacity to offset scheduled mine closures and the incremental increase in global demand. This structural issue has played a pivotal role in the zinc price climbing to its highest level for 10 years in recent months.

    What's included

    • Document

      Slide Pack Zinc LTO Q1 2018.pdf

      PDF 1.49 MB

    • Document

      Zinc Tables LTO Q1 2018.pdf

      PDF 2.64 MB

    • Document

      Market balance and prices zinc LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 638.00 KB

    • Document

      Demand main changes zinc LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 240.50 KB

    • Document

      Demand analysis zinc LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 1.39 MB

    • Document

      Production rankings zinc LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 156.00 KB

    • Document

      Equity Production zinc LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 7.74 MB

    • Document

      Supply main changes zinc LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 187.50 KB

    • Document

      Mine analysis zinc LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 2.45 MB

    • Document

      Smelter analysis zinc LTO Q1 2018.xls

      XLS 3.20 MB

    • Document

      Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2018

      PDF 4.31 MB

    • Document

      Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2018

      ZIP 11.00 MB

    • Document

      Executive summary

      PDF 84.34 KB

    • Document

      Demand

      PDF 3.08 MB

    • Document

      Supply

      PDF 961.30 KB

    • Document

      Supply-demand balances

      PDF 314.15 KB